Overview of methods for source attribution for human illness from food‐borne microbiological hazards ‐ Scientific Opinion of the Panel on Biological Hazards

A straightforward and unified approach is presented for the calculation of the population attributable risk per cent (etiologic fraction) in the general multivariate setting, with emphasis on using data from case-control studies. The summary attributable risk for multiple factors can be estimated, with or without adjustment for other (confounding) risk factors. The relation of this approach to procedures in the literature is discussed. Given values of the relative risks for various combinations of factors, all that is required is the distribution of these factors among the cases only. The required information can often be estimated solely from case-control data, and in some situations relative risk estimates from one population can be applied to calculation of attributable risk for another population. The authors emphasize the benefits to be obtained from logistic regression models, so that risks need not be estimated separately in a large number of strata, some of which may contain inadequate numbers of individuals. This approach allows incorporation of important interactions between factors, but does not require that all possible interactions be included. The approach is illustrated with data on four risk factors from a pair-matched case-control study of participants in a multicenter breast cancer screening project.

Campylobacter is a common cause of gastroenteritis in the United States. We conducted a population-based case-control study to determine risk factors for sporadic Campylobacter infection. During a 12-month study, we enrolled 1316 patients with culture-confirmed Campylobacter infections from 7 states, collecting demographic, clinical, and exposure data using a standardized questionnaire. We interviewed 1 matched control subject for each case patient. Thirteen percent of patients had traveled abroad. In multivariate analysis of persons who had not traveled, the largest population attributable fraction (PAF) of 24% was related to consumption of chicken prepared at a restaurant. The PAF for consumption of nonpoultry meat that was prepared at a restaurant was also large (21%); smaller proportions of illness were associated with other food and nonfood exposures. Efforts to reduce contamination of poultry with Campylobacter should benefit public health. Restaurants should improve food-handling practices, ensure adequate cooking of meat and poultry, and consider purchasing poultry that has been treated to reduce Campylobacter contamination.