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      Use of the moving epidemic method (MEM) to assess national surveillance data for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in the Netherlands, 2005 to 2017

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          Abstract

          Background

          To control respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), which causes acute respiratory infections, data and methods to assess its epidemiology are important.

          Aim

          We sought to describe RSV seasonality, affected age groups and RSV-type distribution over 12 consecutive seasons in the Netherlands, as well as to validate the moving epidemic method (MEM) for monitoring RSV epidemics.

          Methods

          We used 2005−17 laboratory surveillance data and sentinel data. For RSV seasonality evaluation, epidemic thresholds (i) at 1.2% of the cumulative number of RSV-positive patients per season and (ii) at 20 detections per week (for laboratory data) were employed. We also assessed MEM thresholds.

          Results

          In laboratory data RSV was reported 25,491 times (no denominator). In sentinel data 5.6% (767/13,577) of specimens tested RSV positive. Over 12 seasons, sentinel data showed percentage increases of RSV positive samples. The average epidemic length was 18.0 weeks (95% confidence intervals (CI):  16.3–19.7) and 16.5 weeks (95% CI: 14.0–18.0) for laboratory and sentinel data, respectively. Epidemics started on average in week 46 (95% CI: 45–48) and 47 (95% CI:  46–49), respectively. The peak was on average in the first week of January in both datasets. MEM showed similar results to the other methods. RSV incidence was highest in youngest (0–1 and >1–2 years) and oldest (>65–75 and > 75 years) age groups, with age distribution remaining stable over time. RSV-type dominance alternated every one or two seasons.

          Conclusions

          Our findings provide baseline information for immunisation advisory groups. The possibility of employing MEM to monitor RSV epidemics allows prospective, nearly real-time use of surveillance data.

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          Most cited references 28

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          Latitudinal Variations in Seasonal Activity of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV): A Global Comparative Review

          Background There is limited information on influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) seasonal patterns in tropical areas, although there is renewed interest in understanding the seasonal drivers of respiratory viruses. Methods We review geographic variations in seasonality of laboratory-confirmed influenza and RSV epidemics in 137 global locations based on literature review and electronic sources. We assessed peak timing and epidemic duration and explored their association with geography and study settings. We fitted time series model to weekly national data available from the WHO influenza surveillance system (FluNet) to further characterize seasonal parameters. Results Influenza and RSV activity consistently peaked during winter months in temperate locales, while there was greater diversity in the tropics. Several temperate locations experienced semi-annual influenza activity with peaks occurring in winter and summer. Semi-annual activity was relatively common in tropical areas of Southeast Asia for both viruses. Biennial cycles of RSV activity were identified in Northern Europe. Both viruses exhibited weak latitudinal gradients in the timing of epidemics by hemisphere, with peak timing occurring later in the calendar year with increasing latitude (P<0.03). Time series model applied to influenza data from 85 countries confirmed the presence of latitudinal gradients in timing, duration, seasonal amplitude, and between-year variability of epidemics. Overall, 80% of tropical locations experienced distinct RSV seasons lasting 6 months or less, while the percentage was 50% for influenza. Conclusion Our review combining literature and electronic data sources suggests that a large fraction of tropical locations experience focused seasons of respiratory virus activity in individual years. Information on seasonal patterns remains limited in large undersampled regions, included Africa and Central America. Future studies should attempt to link the observed latitudinal gradients in seasonality of viral epidemics with climatic and population factors, and explore regional differences in disease transmission dynamics and attack rates.
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            Rates of hospitalizations for respiratory syncytial virus, human metapneumovirus, and influenza virus in older adults.

            We performed a prospective study to determine the disease burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and human metapneumovirus (HMPV) in older adults in comparison with influenza virus. During 3 consecutive winters, we enrolled Davidson County (Nashville, TN) residents aged ≥ 50 years admitted to 1 of 4 hospitals with acute respiratory illness (ARI). Nasal/throat swabs were tested for influenza, RSV, and HMPV with reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Hospitalization rates were calculated. Of 1042 eligible patients, 508 consented to testing. Respiratory syncytial virus was detected in 31 participants (6.1%); HMPV was detected in 23 (4.5%) patients; and influenza was detected in 33 (6.5%) patients. Of those subjects aged ≥ 65 years, 78% received influenza vaccination. Compared with patients with confirmed influenza, patients with RSV were older and more immunocompromised; patients with HMPV were older, had more cardiovascular disease, were more likely to have received the influenza vaccination, and were less likely to report fever than those with influenza. Over 3 years, average annual rates of hospitalization were 15.01, 9.82, and 11.81 per 10,000 county residents due to RSV, HMPV, and influenza, respectively. In adults aged ≥ 50 years, hospitalization rates for RSV and HMPV were similar to those associated with influenza.
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              Mortality attributable to 9 common infections: significant effect of influenza A, respiratory syncytial virus, influenza B, norovirus, and parainfluenza in elderly persons.

              Because there may be substantial hidden mortality caused by common seasonal pathogens, we estimated the number of deaths in elderly persons attributable to viruses and bacteria for which robust weekly laboratory surveillance data were available. On weekly time series (1999-2007) we used regression models to associate total death counts in individuals aged 65-74, 75-84, and ≥85 years (a population of 2.5 million) with pathogen circulation-influenza A (season-specific), influenza B, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenza, enterovirus, rotavirus, norovirus, Campylobacter, and Salmonella-adjusted for extreme outdoor temperatures. Influenza A and RSV were significantly (P < .05) associated with mortality in all studied age groups; influenza B and parainfluenza were additionally associated in those aged ≥75 years, and norovirus was additionally associated in those aged ≥85 years. The proportions of deaths attributable to seasonal viruses were 6.8% (≥85 years), 4.4% (75-84 years), and 1.4% (65-74 years), but with great variations between years. Influenza occasionally showed lower impact than some of the other viruses. The number of different pathogens associated with mortality in the older population increases with increasing age. Besides influenza A and RSV, influenza B, parainfluenza and norovirus may also contribute substantially to elderly mortality.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Euro Surveill
                Euro Surveill
                eurosurveillance
                Eurosurveillance
                European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)
                1025-496X
                1560-7917
                16 May 2019
                : 24
                : 20
                Affiliations
                [1 ]University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Department of Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, Utrecht, the Netherlands
                [2 ]Centre for infectious Disease Control Bilthoven, Centre for Infectious Diseases, Epidemiology and Surveillance, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
                [3 ]Dirección General de Salud Pública, Consejería de Sanidad, Valladolid, Spain
                [4 ]NIVEL Primary Care Database – Sentinel Practices, Utrecht, the Netherlands
                [5 ]Wilhelmina Children’s Hospital, Utrecht University, Department of Paediatric Infectious Diseases, Utrecht, the Netherlands
                [6 ]Centre for infectious Disease Control Bilthoven, Centre for Infectious Diseases Research, Diagnostics and laboratory Surveillance, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
                Author notes

                Correspondence: Adam Meijer ( Adam.Meijer@ 123456rivm.nl )

                Article
                1800469 1800469
                10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2019.24.20.1800469
                6530251
                31115311
                5277fa6f-39f2-499d-91bc-21af141bacdc
                This article is copyright of the authors or their affiliated institutions, 2019.

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) Licence. You may share and adapt the material, but must give appropriate credit to the source, provide a link to the licence, and indicate if changes were made.

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