Taxi Demand Prediction Based on a Combination Forecasting Model in Hotspots

Abstract

Accurate taxi demand prediction can solve the congestion problem caused by the supply-demand imbalance. However, most taxi demand studies are based on historical taxi trajectory data. In this study, we detected hotspots and proposed three methods to predict the taxi demand in hotspots. Next, we compared the predictive effect of the random forest model (RFM), ridge regression model (RRM), and combination forecasting model (CFM). Thereafter, we considered environmental and meteorological factors to predict the taxi demand in hotspots. Finally, the importance of indicators was analyzed, and the essential elements were the time, temperature, and weather factors. The results indicate that the prediction effect of CFM is better than those of RFM and RRM. The experiment obtains the relationship between taxi demand and environment and is helpful for taxi dispatching by considering additional factors, such as temperature and weather.