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      Landscape effects and spatial patterns of avian influenza virus in Danish wild birds, 2006–2020


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          Avian influenza (AI) is a contagious disease of birds with zoonotic potential. AI virus (AIV) can infect most bird species, but clinical signs and mortality vary. Assessing the distribution and factors affecting AI presence can direct targeted surveillance to areas at risk of disease outbreaks, or help identify disease hotspots or areas with inadequate surveillance. Using virus surveillance data from passive and active AIV wild bird surveillance, 2006−2020, we investigated the association between the presence of AIV and a range of landscape factors and game bird release. Furthermore, we assessed potential bias in the passive AIV surveillance data submitted by the public, via factors related to public accessibility. Lastly, we tested the AIV data for possible hot‐ and cold spots within Denmark. The passive surveillance data was biased regarding accessibility to areas (distance to roads, cities and coast) compared to random locations within Denmark. For both the passive and active AIV surveillance data, we found significant ( p < .01) associations with variables related to coast, wetlands and cities, but not game bird release. We used these variables to predict the risk of AIV presence throughout Denmark, and found high‐risk areas concentrated along the coast and fjords. For both passive and active surveillance data, low‐risk clusters were mainly seen in Jutland and northern Zealand, whereas high‐risk clusters were found in Jutland, Zealand, Funen and the southern Isles such as Lolland and Falster. Our results suggest that landscape affects AIV presence, as coastal areas and wetlands attract waterfowl and migrating birds and therefore might increase the potential for AIV transmission. Our findings have enabled us to create risk maps of AIV presence in wild birds and pinpoint high‐risk clusters within Denmark. This will aid targeted surveillance efforts within Denmark and potentially aid in planning the location of future poultry farms.

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            Mapping H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza risk in Southeast Asia.

            The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus that emerged in southern China in the mid-1990s has in recent years evolved into the first HPAI panzootic. In many countries where the virus was detected, the virus was successfully controlled, whereas other countries face periodic reoccurrence despite significant control efforts. A central question is to understand the factors favoring the continuing reoccurrence of the virus. The abundance of domestic ducks, in particular free-grazing ducks feeding in intensive rice cropping areas, has been identified as one such risk factor based on separate studies carried out in Thailand and Vietnam. In addition, recent extensive progress was made in the spatial prediction of rice cropping intensity obtained through satellite imagery processing. This article analyses the statistical association between the recorded HPAI H5N1 virus presence and a set of five key environmental variables comprising elevation, human population, chicken numbers, duck numbers, and rice cropping intensity for three synchronous epidemic waves in Thailand and Vietnam. A consistent pattern emerges suggesting risk to be associated with duck abundance, human population, and rice cropping intensity in contrast to a relatively low association with chicken numbers. A statistical risk model based on the second epidemic wave data in Thailand is found to maintain its predictive power when extrapolated to Vietnam, which supports its application to other countries with similar agro-ecological conditions such as Laos or Cambodia. The model's potential application to mapping HPAI H5N1 disease risk in Indonesia is discussed.
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              Global epidemiology of avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in humans, 1997 – 2015: a systematic review

              SUMMARY Avian influenza viruses A(H5N1) have caused a large number of typically severe human infections since the first human case was reported in 1997. However, there is a lack of comprehensive epidemiological analysis of global human cases of H5N1 from 1997-2015. Moreover, few studies have examined in detail the changing epidemiology of human H5N1 cases in Egypt, especially given the most recent outbreaks since November 2014 which have the highest number of cases ever reported globally over a similar period. Data on individual cases were collated from different sources using a systematic approach to describe the global epidemiology of 907 human H5N1 cases between May 1997 and April 2015. The number of affected countries rose between 2003 and 2008, with expansion from East and Southeast Asia, then to West Asia and Africa. Most cases (67.2%) occurred from December to March, and the overall case fatality risk was 53.5% (483/903) which varied across geographical regions. Although the incidence in Egypt has increased dramatically since November 2014, compared to the cases beforehand there were no significant differences in the fatality risk , history of exposure to poultry, history of human case contact, and time from onset to hospitalization in the recent cases.

                Author and article information

                Transbound Emerg Dis
                Transbound Emerg Dis
                Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
                John Wiley and Sons Inc. (Hoboken )
                06 May 2021
                March 2022
                : 69
                : 2 ( doiID: 10.1111/tbed.v69.2 )
                : 706-719
                [ 1 ] Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences Section for Animal Welfare and Disease Control Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences University of Copenhagen Frederiksberg Denmark
                [ 2 ] Department of Virus & Microbiological Special Diagnostics Statens Serum Institut Copenhagen Denmark
                [ 3 ] Faculty of Science Sydney School of Veterinary Science The University of Sydney Camden NSW Australia
                Author notes
                [*] [* ] Correspondence

                Lene Jung Kjær, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, Section for Animal Welfare and Disease Control, Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg, Denmark.

                Email: lenju@ 123456sund.ku.dk

                Author information
                © 2021 The Authors. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases published by Wiley‐VCH GmbH.

                This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                : 22 January 2021
                : 19 November 2020
                : 16 February 2021
                Page count
                Figures: 5, Tables: 2, Pages: 14, Words: 9353
                Funded by: Erasmus Staff Mobility Program
                Funded by: Danish Food Administration , doi 10.13039/501100015814;
                Original Article
                Original Articles
                Custom metadata
                March 2022
                Converter:WILEY_ML3GV2_TO_JATSPMC version:6.1.7 mode:remove_FC converted:18.07.2022

                Infectious disease & Microbiology
                aiv surveillance,avian influenza,high‐risk clusters,landscape,spatial patterns,wild birds


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