Michael Hiesmayr 1 , * , Sophie Frantal 2 , Karin Schindler 3 , Michael Themessl-Huber 2 , Mohamed Mouhieddine 1 , Christian Schuh 2 , Elisabeth Pernicka 2 , Stéphane Schneider 4 , Pierre Singer 5 , Olle Ljunqvist 6 , Claude Pichard 7 , Alessandro Laviano 8 , Sigrid Kosak 1 , Peter Bauer 2
22 May 2015
To develop a simple scoring system to predict 30 day in-hospital mortality of in-patients excluding those from intensive care units based on easily obtainable demographic, disease and nutrition related patient data.
Score development with general estimation equation methodology and model selection by P-value thresholding based on a cross-sectional sample of 52 risk indicators with 123 item classes collected with questionnaires and stored in an multilingual online database.
Worldwide prospective cross-sectional cohort with 30 day in-hospital mortality from the nutritionDay 2006-2009 and an external validation sample from 2012.
We included 43894 patients from 2480 units in 32 countries. 1631(3.72%) patients died within 30 days in hospital. The Patient- And Nutrition- Derived Outcome Risk Assessment (PANDORA) score predicts 30-day hospital mortality based on 7 indicators with 31 item classes on a scale from 0 to 75 points. The indicators are age (0 to 17 points), nutrient intake on nutritionDay (0 to 12 points), mobility (0 to 11 points), fluid status (0 to 10 points), BMI (0 to 9 points), cancer (9 points) and main patient group (0 to 7 points). An appropriate model fit has been achieved. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for mortality prediction was 0.82 in the development sample and 0.79 in the external validation sample.