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      Ambiguity in the Land Use Component of Mitigation Contributions Toward the Paris Agreement Goals

      1 , 2 , 1
      Earth's Future
      American Geophysical Union (AGU)

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          Global Carbon Budget 2017

          Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the global carbon budget – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry ( E FF ) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change ( E LUC ), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth ( G ATM ) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO 2 sink ( S OCEAN ) and terrestrial CO 2 sink ( S LAND ) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance ( B IM ), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 σ . For the last decade available (2007–2016), E FF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 , E LUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr −1 , G ATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr −1 , S OCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 , and S LAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr −1 , with a budget imbalance B IM of 0.6 GtC yr −1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in E FF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 . Also for 2016, E LUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr −1 , G ATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr −1 , S OCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 , and S LAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr −1 , with a small B IM of −0.3 GtC. G ATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small S LAND consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in E FF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017).
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            The key role of forests in meeting climate targets requires science for credible mitigation

            Forests are a key component of the Paris Agreement, providing about a quarter of planned emission reductions. Realizing this ambition, however, requires greater confidence in forest estimates, presenting a challenge and an opportunity for science.
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              The Contribution of Agriculture, Forestry and other Land Use activities to Global Warming, 1990-2012

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Earth's Future
                Earth's Future
                American Geophysical Union (AGU)
                2328-4277
                2328-4277
                August 04 2019
                August 2019
                August 04 2019
                August 2019
                : 7
                : 8
                : 873-891
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Potsdam Germany
                [2 ]Climate Analytics gGmbH Berlin Germany
                Article
                10.1029/2019EF001190
                55229705-87bc-4d71-bf05-a3f503b97002
                © 2019

                http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

                http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/tdm_license_1.1

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