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      Predicting species distribution and abundance responses to climate change: why it is essential to include biotic interactions across trophic levels.

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          Abstract

          Current predictions on species responses to climate change strongly rely on projecting altered environmental conditions on species distributions. However, it is increasingly acknowledged that climate change also influences species interactions. We review and synthesize literature information on biotic interactions and use it to argue that the abundance of species and the direction of selection during climate change vary depending on how their trophic interactions become disrupted. Plant abundance can be controlled by aboveground and belowground multitrophic level interactions with herbivores, pathogens, symbionts and their enemies. We discuss how these interactions may alter during climate change and the resulting species range shifts. We suggest conceptual analogies between species responses to climate warming and exotic species introduced in new ranges. There are also important differences: the herbivores, pathogens and mutualistic symbionts of range-expanding species and their enemies may co-migrate, and the continuous gene flow under climate warming can make adaptation in the expansion zone of range expanders different from that of cross-continental exotic species. We conclude that under climate change, results of altered species interactions may vary, ranging from species becoming rare to disproportionately abundant. Taking these possibilities into account will provide a new perspective on predicting species distribution under climate change.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci
          Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences
          The Royal Society
          1471-2970
          0962-8436
          Jul 12 2010
          : 365
          : 1549
          Affiliations
          [1 ] Department of Terrestrial Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), PO Box 40, 6666 ZG Heteren, The Netherlands. w.vanderputten@nioo.knaw.nl
          Article
          365/1549/2025
          10.1098/rstb.2010.0037
          2880132
          20513711
          555e4a15-ca5a-4f82-b44a-85c045a0fd64
          History

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