Meuwissen et al. on Genomic Selection

Whole-genome enabled prediction of complex traits has received enormous attention in animal and plant breeding and is making inroads into human and even Drosophila genetics. The term "Bayesian alphabet" denotes a growing number of letters of the alphabet used to denote various Bayesian linear regressions that differ in the priors adopted, while sharing the same sampling model. We explore the role of the prior distribution in whole-genome regression models for dissecting complex traits in what is now a standard situation with genomic data where the number of unknown parameters (p) typically exceeds sample size (n). Members of the alphabet aim to confront this overparameterization in various manners, but it is shown here that the prior is always influential, unless n ≫ p. This happens because parameters are not likelihood identified, so Bayesian learning is imperfect. Since inferences are not devoid of the influence of the prior, claims about genetic architecture from these methods should be taken with caution. However, all such procedures may deliver reasonable predictions of complex traits, provided that some parameters ("tuning knobs") are assessed via a properly conducted cross-validation. It is concluded that members of the alphabet have a room in whole-genome prediction of phenotypes, but have somewhat doubtful inferential value, at least when sample size is such that n ≪ p.

When a genetic marker and a quantitative trait locus (QTL) are in linkage disequilibrium (LD) in one population, they may not be in LD in another population or their LD phase may be reversed. The objectives of this study were to compare the extent of LD and the persistence of LD phase across multiple cattle populations. LD measures r and r(2) were calculated for syntenic marker pairs using genomewide single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) that were genotyped in Dutch and Australian Holstein-Friesian (HF) bulls, Australian Angus cattle, and New Zealand Friesian and Jersey cows. Average r(2) was approximately 0.35, 0.25, 0.22, 0.14, and 0.06 at marker distances 10, 20, 40, 100, and 1000 kb, respectively, which indicates that genomic selection within cattle breeds with r(2) >or= 0.20 between adjacent markers would require approximately 50,000 SNPs. The correlation of r values between populations for the same marker pairs was close to 1 for pairs of very close markers (<10 kb) and decreased with increasing marker distance and the extent of divergence between the populations. To find markers that are in LD with QTL across diverged breeds, such as HF, Jersey, and Angus, would require approximately 300,000 markers.

The use of all available molecular markers in statistical models for prediction of quantitative traits has led to what could be termed a genomic-assisted selection paradigm in animal and plant breeding. This article provides a critical review of some theoretical and statistical concepts in the context of genomic-assisted genetic evaluation of animals and crops. First, relationships between the (Bayesian) variance of marker effects in some regression models and additive genetic variance are examined under standard assumptions. Second, the connection between marker genotypes and resemblance between relatives is explored, and linkages between a marker-based model and the infinitesimal model are reviewed. Third, issues associated with the use of Bayesian models for marker-assisted selection, with a focus on the role of the priors, are examined from a theoretical angle. The sensitivity of a Bayesian specification that has been proposed (called "Bayes A") with respect to priors is illustrated with a simulation. Methods that can solve potential shortcomings of some of these Bayesian regression procedures are discussed briefly.