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      Comparison of abdominal adiposity and overall obesity in predicting risk of type 2 diabetes among men

      , , , ,
      The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition
      Oxford University Press (OUP)

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          Abstract

          Obesity is a strong risk factor for type 2 diabetes. However, few studies have compared the predictive power of overall obesity with that of central obesity. The cutoffs for waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) as measures of abdominal adiposity remain controversial. The objective was to compare body mass index (BMI), WC, and WHR in predicting type 2 diabetes. A prospective cohort study (Health Professionals Follow-Up Study) of 27 270 men was conducted. WC, WHR, and BMI were assessed at baseline. Covariates and potential confounders were assessed repeatedly during the follow-up. During 13 y of follow-up, we documented 884 incident type 2 diabetes cases. Age-adjusted relative risks (RRs) across quintiles of WC were 1.0, 2.0, 2.7, 5.0, and 12.0; those of WHR were 1.0, 2.1, 2.7, 3.6, and 6.9; and those of BMI were 1.0, 1.1, 1.8, 2.9, and 7.9 (P for trend < 0.0001 for all). Multivariate adjustment for diabetes risk factors only slightly attenuated these RRs. Adjustment for BMI substantially attenuated RRs for both WC and WHR. The receiver operator characteristic curve analysis indicated that WC and BMI were similar and were better than WHR in predicting type 2 diabetes. The cumulative proportions of type 2 diabetes cases identified according to medians of BMI (>/=24.8), WC (>/=94 cm), and WHR (>/=0.94) were 82.5%, 83.6%, and 74.1%, respectively. The corresponding proportions were 78.9%, 50.5%, and 65.7% according to the recommended cutoffs. Both overall and abdominal adiposity strongly and independently predict risk of type 2 diabetes. WC is a better predictor than is WHR. The currently recommended cutoff for WC of 102 cm for men may need to be reevaluated; a lower cutoff may be more appropriate.

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          Principles and practical application of the receiver-operating characteristic analysis for diagnostic tests.

          We review the principles and practical application of receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis for diagnostic tests. ROC analysis can be used for diagnostic tests with outcomes measured on ordinal, interval or ratio scales. The dependence of the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity on the selected cut-off value must be considered for a full test evaluation and for test comparison. All possible combinations of sensitivity and specificity that can be achieved by changing the test's cut-off value can be summarised using a single parameter; the area under the ROC curve. The ROC technique can also be used to optimise cut-off values with regard to a given prevalence in the target population and cost ratio of false-positive and false-negative results. However, plots of optimisation parameters against the selected cut-off value provide a more-direct method for cut-off selection. Candidates for such optimisation parameters are linear combinations of sensitivity and specificity (with weights selected to reflect the decision-making situation), odds ratio, chance-corrected measures of association (e. g. kappa) and likelihood ratios. We discuss some recent developments in ROC analysis, including meta-analysis of diagnostic tests, correlated ROC curves (paired-sample design) and chance- and prevalence-corrected ROC curves.
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              Abdominal adiposity and coronary heart disease in women.

              Obesity is a well-established risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD), but whether regional fat distribution contributes independently to risk remains unclear. To compare waist-hip ratio (WHR) and waist circumference in determining risk of CHD in women. Prospective cohort study among US female registered nurses participating in the Nurses' Health Study conducted between 1986, when the nurses completed a questionnaire, and follow-up in June 1994. A total of 44702 women aged 40 to 65 years who provided waist and hip circumferences and were free of prior CHD, stroke, or cancer in 1986. Incidence of CHD (nonfatal myocardial infarction or CHD death). During 8 years of follow-up 320 CHD events (251 myocardial infarctions and 69 CHD deaths) were documented. Higher WHR and greater waist circumference were independently associated with a significantly increased age-adjusted risk of CHD. After adjusting for body mass index (BMI) (defined as weight in kilograms divided by the square of height in meters) and other cardiac risk factors, women with a WHR of 0.88 or higher had a relative risk (RR) of 3.25 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.78-5.95) for CHD compared with women with a WHR of less than 0.72. A waist circumference of 96.5 cm (38 in) or more was associated with an RR of 3.06 (95% CI, 1.54-6.10). The WHR and waist circumference were independently strongly associated with increased risk of CHD also among women with a BMI of 25 kg/m2 or less. After adjustment for reported hypertension, diabetes, and high cholesterol level, a WHR of 0.76 or higher or waist circumference of 76.2 cm (30 in) or more was associated with more than a 2-fold higher risk of CHD. The WHR and waist circumference are independently associated with risk of CHD in women.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition
                Oxford University Press (OUP)
                0002-9165
                1938-3207
                March 2005
                March 01 2005
                March 2005
                March 01 2005
                : 81
                : 3
                : 555-563
                Article
                10.1093/ajcn/81.3.555
                15755822
                579d7472-e778-42dc-9f08-23e7b34b2975
                © 2005
                History

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