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      The global burden of tuberculosis: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

      GBD Tuberculosis Collaborators

      The Lancet. Infectious diseases

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          There is no author summary for this article yet. Authors can add summaries to their articles on ScienceOpen to make them more accessible to a non-specialist audience.

          Summary

          Background

          An understanding of the trends in tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality is crucial to tracking of the success of tuberculosis control programmes and identification of remaining challenges. We assessed trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis over the past 25 years for 195 countries and territories.

          Methods

          We analysed 10 691 site-years of vital registration data, 768 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate tuberculosis mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how observed tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality differed from expected trends as predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator based on income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. We also estimated tuberculosis mortality and disability-adjusted life-years attributable to the independent effects of risk factors including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes.

          Findings

          Globally, in 2015, the number of tuberculosis incident cases (including new and relapse cases) was 10·2 million (95% uncertainty interval 9·2 million to 11·5 million), the number of prevalent cases was 10·1 million (9·2 million to 11·1 million), and the number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·1 million to 1·6 million). Among individuals who were HIV negative, the number of incident cases was 8·8 million (8·0 million to 9·9 million), the number of prevalent cases was 8·9 million (8·1 million to 9·7 million), and the number of deaths was 1·1 million (0·9 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change from 2005 to 2015 showed a faster decline in mortality (–4·1% [–5·0 to –3·4]) than in incidence (–1·6% [–1·9 to –1·2]) and prevalence (–0·7% [–1·0 to –0·5]) among HIV-negative individuals. The SDI was inversely associated with HIV-negative mortality rates but did not show a clear gradient for incidence and prevalence. Most of Asia, eastern Europe, and sub-Saharan Africa had higher rates of HIV-negative tuberculosis burden than expected given their SDI. Alcohol use accounted for 11·4% (9·3–13·0) of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals in 2015, diabetes accounted for 10·6% (6·8–14·8), and smoking accounted for 7·8% (3·8–12·0).

          Interpretation

          Despite a concerted global effort to reduce the burden of tuberculosis, it still causes a large disease burden globally. Strengthening of health systems for early detection of tuberculosis and improvement of the quality of tuberculosis care, including prompt and accurate diagnosis, early initiation of treatment, and regular follow-up, are priorities. Countries with higher than expected tuberculosis rates for their level of sociodemographic development should investigate the reasons for lagging behind and take remedial action. Efforts to prevent smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes could also substantially reduce the burden of tuberculosis.

          Funding

          Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

          Related collections

          Most cited references 45

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          The population dynamics and control of tuberculosis.

          More than 36 million patients have been successfully treated via the World Health Organization's strategy for tuberculosis (TB) control since 1995. Despite predictions of a decline in global incidence, the number of new cases continues to grow, approaching 10 million in 2010. Here we review the changing relationship between the causative agent, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, and its human host and examine a range of factors that could explain the persistence of TB. Although there are ways to reduce susceptibility to infection and disease, and a high-efficacy vaccine would boost TB prevention, early diagnosis and drug treatment to interrupt transmission remain the top priorities for control. Whatever the technology used, success depends critically on the social, institutional, and epidemiological context in which it is applied.
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            Sexual Inequality in Tuberculosis

            Olivier Neyrolles and Lluis Quintana-Murci review the evidence on why tuberulosis notification is twice as high in men as in women in most countries.
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              The association between alcohol use, alcohol use disorders and tuberculosis (TB). A systematic review

              Background In 2004, tuberculosis (TB) was responsible for 2.5% of global mortality (among men 3.1%; among women 1.8%) and 2.2% of global burden of disease (men 2.7%; women 1.7%). The present work portrays accumulated evidence on the association between alcohol consumption and TB with the aim to clarify the nature of the relationship. Methods A systematic review of existing scientific data on the association between alcohol consumption and TB, and on studies relevant for clarification of causality was undertaken. Results There is a strong association between heavy alcohol use/alcohol use disorders (AUD) and TB. A meta-analysis on the risk of TB for these factors yielded a pooled relative risk of 2.94 (95% CI: 1.89-4.59). Numerous studies show pathogenic impact of alcohol on the immune system causing susceptibility to TB among heavy drinkers. In addition, there are potential social pathways linking AUD and TB. Heavy alcohol use strongly influences both the incidence and the outcome of the disease and was found to be linked to altered pharmacokinetics of medicines used in treatment of TB, social marginalization and drift, higher rate of re-infection, higher rate of treatment defaults and development of drug-resistant forms of TB. Based on the available data, about 10% of the TB cases globally were estimated to be attributable to alcohol. Conclusion The epidemiological and other evidence presented indicates that heavy alcohol use/AUD constitute a risk factor for incidence and re-infection of TB. Consequences for prevention and clinical interventions are discussed.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                101130150
                27022
                Lancet Infect Dis
                Lancet Infect Dis
                The Lancet. Infectious diseases
                1473-3099
                1474-4457
                12 December 2017
                07 December 2017
                March 2018
                01 March 2018
                : 18
                : 3
                : 261-284
                Author notes
                Correspondence to: Prof Christopher J L Murray, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA 98121, USA; cjlm@ 123456uw.edu
                Article
                EMS75313
                10.1016/S1473-3099(17)30703-X
                5831985
                29223583

                This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

                Categories
                Article

                Infectious disease & Microbiology

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