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      Computational model of a vector-mediated epidemic

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          Abstract

          We discuss a lattice model of vector-mediated transmission of a disease to illustrate how simulations can be applied in epidemiology. The population consists of two species, human hosts and vectors, which contract the disease from one another. Hosts are sedentary, while vectors (mosquitoes) diffuse in space. Examples of such diseases are malaria, dengue fever, and Pierce's disease in vineyards. The model exhibits a phase transition between an absorbing (infection free) phase and an active one as parameters such as infection rates and vector density are varied.

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          Most cited references7

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          An Application of the Theory of Probabilities to the Study of a priori Pathometry. Part I

          R. Ross (1916)
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            How to simulate the quasistationary state

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              On the delayed Ross-Macdonald model for malaria transmission.

              The feedback dynamics from mosquito to human and back to mosquito involve considerable time delays due to the incubation periods of the parasites. In this paper, taking explicit account of the incubation periods of parasites within the human and the mosquito, we first propose a delayed Ross-Macdonald model. Then we calculate the basic reproduction number R0 and carry out some sensitivity analysis of R0 on the incubation periods, that is, to study the effect of time delays on the basic reproduction number. It is shown that the basic reproduction number is a decreasing function of both time delays. Thus, prolonging the incubation periods in either humans or mosquitos (via medicine or control measures) could reduce the prevalence of infection.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Am J Phys
                Am J Phys
                AJPIAS
                American Journal of Physics
                American Association of Physics Teachers
                0002-9505
                1943-2909
                May 2015
                : 83
                : 5
                : 468-474
                Affiliations
                Programa de Pós-graduação em Ensino de Ciências e Matemática, Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Minas Gerais , Av. Dom José Gaspar, 500, Coração Eucarístico, 30535-901, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
                Departamento de Física and National Institute of Science and Technology of Complex Systems, ICEx, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais , Caixa Postal 702, 30161-970, Belo Horizonte - Minas Gerais, Brazil
                Author notes
                Article
                1.4917164 009505AJP 27660
                10.1119/1.4917164
                7110924
                590217a1-f43c-4878-a674-e71f652ba8c3
                Copyright @ 2015

                0002-9505/2015/83(5)/468/7/ $30.00

                All article content, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ).

                History
                : 16 March 2015
                : 25 March 2015
                Page count
                Pages: 7
                Categories
                Computational Physics
                Custom metadata

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