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      Variability in estimated glomerular filtration rate values is a risk factor in chronic kidney disease progression among patients with diabetes


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          It is unknown whether variability of estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR) is a risk factor for dialysis or death in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study aimed to evaluate variability of estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR) as a risk factor for dialysis or death to facilitate optimum care among high risk patients.


          A longitudinal retrospective cohort study of 70,598 Veterans Health Administration veteran patients with diabetes and CKD (stage 3–4) in 2000 with up to 5 years of follow-up. VHA and Medicare files were linked to derive study variables. We used Cox proportional hazards models to evaluate association between time to initial dialysis/death and key independent variables: time-varying eGFR variability (measured by standard deviation (SD)) and eGFR means and slopes while adjusting for prior hospitalizations, and comorbidities.


          There were 76.7% older than 65 years, 97.5% men, and 81.9% Whites. Patients were largely in early stage 3 (61.2%), followed by late stage 3 (28.9%), and stage 4 (9.9%); 29.1%, 46.8%, and 73.3%, respectively, died or had dialysis during the follow-up. eGFR SDs (median: 5.8, 5.1, and 4.0 ml/min/1.73 m 2 ) and means (median: 54.1, 41.0, 27.2 ml/min/1.73 m 2) from all two-year moving intervals decreased as CKD advanced; eGFR variability (relative to the mean) increased when CKD progressed (median coefficient of variation: 10.9, 12.8, and 15.4). Cox regressions revealed that one unit increase in a patient’s standard deviation of eGFRs from prior two years was significantly associated with about 7% increase in risk of dialysis/death in the current year, similarly in all three CKD stages. This was after adjusting for concurrent means and slopes of eGFRs, demographics, prior hospitalization, and comorbidities. For example, the hazard of dialysis/death increased by 7.2% (hazard ratio:1.072; 95% CI = 1.067, 1.080) in early stage 3.


          eGFR variability was independently associated with elevated risk of dialysis/death even after controlling for eGFR means and slopes.

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          The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12882-015-0025-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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          Most cited references 33

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          Acute kidney injury increases risk of ESRD among elderly.

          Risk for ESRD among elderly patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) has not been studied in a large, representative sample. This study aimed to determine incidence rates and hazard ratios for developing ESRD in elderly individuals, with and without chronic kidney disease (CKD), who had AKI. In the 2000 5% random sample of Medicare beneficiaries, clinical conditions were identified using Medicare claims; ESRD treatment information was obtained from ESRD registration during 2 yr of follow-up. Our cohort of 233,803 patients were hospitalized in 2000, were aged > or = 67 yr on discharge, did not have previous ESRD or AKI, and were Medicare-entitled for > or = 2 yr before discharge. In this cohort, 3.1% survived to discharge with a diagnosis of AKI, and 5.3 per 1000 developed ESRD. Among patients who received treatment for ESRD, 25.2% had a previous history of AKI. After adjustment for age, gender, race, diabetes, and hypertension, the hazard ratio for developing ESRD was 41.2 (95% confidence interval [CI] 34.6 to 49.1) for patients with AKI and CKD relative to those without kidney disease, 13.0 (95% CI 10.6 to 16.0) for patients with AKI and without previous CKD, and 8.4 (95% CI 7.4 to 9.6) for patients with CKD and without AKI. In summary, elderly individuals with AKI, particularly those with previously diagnosed CKD, are at significantly increased risk for ESRD, suggesting that episodes of AKI may accelerate progression of renal disease.
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            Incidence and outcomes in acute kidney injury: a comprehensive population-based study.

            Epidemiological studies of acute kidney injury (AKI) and acute-on-chronic renal failure (ACRF) are surprisingly sparse and confounded by differences in definition. Reported incidences vary, with few studies being population-based. Given this and our aging population, the incidence of AKI may be much higher than currently thought. We tested the hypothesis that the incidence is higher by including all patients with AKI (in a geographical population base of 523,390) regardless of whether they required renal replacement therapy irrespective of the hospital setting in which they were treated. We also tested the hypothesis that the Risk, Injury, Failure, Loss, and End-Stage Kidney (RIFLE) classification predicts outcomes. We identified all patients with serum creatinine concentrations > or =150 micromol/L (male) or > or =130 micromol/L (female) over a 6-mo period in 2003. Clinical outcomes were obtained from each patient's case records. The incidences of AKI and ACRF were 1811 and 336 per million population, respectively. Median age was 76 yr for AKI and 80.5 yr for ACRF. Sepsis was a precipitating factor in 47% of patients. The RIFLE classification was useful for predicting full recovery of renal function (P < 0.001), renal replacement therapy requirement (P < 0.001), length of hospital stay [excluding those who died during admission (P < 0.001)], and in-hospital mortality (P = 0.035). RIFLE did not predict mortality at 90 d or 6 mo. Thus the incidence of AKI is much higher than previously thought, with implications for service planning and providing information to colleagues about methods to prevent deterioration of renal function. The RIFLE classification is useful for identifying patients at greatest risk of adverse short-term outcomes.
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              Effect of blood pressure lowering and antihypertensive drug class on progression of hypertensive kidney disease: results from the AASK trial.

               L Agodoa,  Robert Toto,   (2002)
              Hypertension is a leading cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the United States, with no known treatment to prevent progressive declines leading to ESRD. To compare the effects of 2 levels of blood pressure (BP) control and 3 antihypertensive drug classes on glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decline in hypertension. Randomized 3 x 2 factorial trial with enrollment from February 1995 to September 1998. A total of 1094 African Americans aged 18 to 70 years with hypertensive renal disease (GFR, 20-65 mL/min per 1.73 m(2)) were recruited from 21 clinical centers throughout the United States and followed up for 3 to 6.4 years. Participants were randomly assigned to 1 of 2 mean arterial pressure goals, 102 to 107 mm Hg (usual; n = 554) or 92 mm Hg or less (lower; n = 540), and to initial treatment with either a beta-blocker (metoprolol 50-200 mg/d; n = 441), an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ramipril 2.5-10 mg/d; n = 436) or a dihydropyridine calcium channel blocker, (amlodipine 5-10 mg/d; n = 217). Open-label agents were added to achieve the assigned BP goals. Rate of change in GFR (GFR slope); clinical composite outcome of reduction in GFR by 50% or more (or > or =25 mL/min per 1.73 m2) from baseline, ESRD, or death. Three primary treatment comparisons were specified: lower vs usual BP goal; ramipril vs metoprolol; and amlodipine vs metoprolol. Achieved BP averaged (SD) 128/78 (12/8) mm Hg in the lower BP group and 141/85 (12/7) mm Hg in the usual BP group. The mean (SE) GFR slope from baseline through 4 years did not differ significantly between the lower BP group (-2.21 [0.17] mL/min per 1.73 m2 per year) and the usual BP group (-1.95 [0.17] mL/min per 1.73 m2 per year; P =.24), and the lower BP goal did not significantly reduce the rate of the clinical composite outcome (risk reduction for lower BP group = 2%; 95% confidence interval [CI], -22% to 21%; P =.85). None of the drug group comparisons showed consistent significant differences in the GFR slope. However, compared with the metoprolol and amlodipine groups, the ramipril group manifested risk reductions in the clinical composite outcome of 22% (95% CI, 1%-38%; P =.04) and 38% (95% CI, 14%-56%; P =.004), respectively. There was no significant difference in the clinical composite outcome between the amlodipine and metoprolol groups. No additional benefit of slowing progression of hypertensive nephrosclerosis was observed with the lower BP goal. Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors appear to be more effective than beta-blockers or dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers in slowing GFR decline.

                Author and article information

                BMC Nephrol
                BMC Nephrol
                BMC Nephrology
                BioMed Central (London )
                25 March 2015
                25 March 2015
                : 16
                [ ]Department of Veteran Affairs-New Jersey Health Care System, 385 Tremont Avenue, Mail Stop#15, East Orange, NJ 07018 USA
                [ ]Department of Preventive Medicine and Community Health, Rutgers University, New Jersey Medical School, Newark, NJ USA
                [ ]Department of Medicine, University of Montreal, Montreal, QC Canada
                [ ]Department of Biostatistics, Rutgers School of Public Health, Piscataway, NJ USA
                [ ]Bedford VA Medical Center, Center for Health Quality, Outcomes and Economic Research, Bedford, MA USA
                [ ]Boston University, School of Public Health, Boston, MA USA
                © Tseng et al.; licensee BioMed Central. 2015

                This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

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                chronic kidney disease, diabetes, dialysis, glomerular filtration rate, mortality


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