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      Mapping Community Determinants of Heat Vulnerability

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          Abstract

          Background

          The evidence that heat waves can result in both increased deaths and illness is substantial, and concern over this issue is rising because of climate change. Adverse health impacts from heat waves can be avoided, and epidemiologic studies have identified specific population and community characteristics that mark vulnerability to heat waves.

          Objectives

          We situated vulnerability to heat in geographic space and identified potential areas for intervention and further research.

          Methods

          We mapped and analyzed 10 vulnerability factors for heat-related morbidity/mortality in the United States: six demographic characteristics and two household air conditioning variables from the U.S. Census Bureau, vegetation cover from satellite images, and diabetes prevalence from a national survey. We performed a factor analysis of these 10 variables and assigned values of increasing vulnerability for the four resulting factors to each of 39,794 census tracts. We added the four factor scores to obtain a cumulative heat vulnerability index value.

          Results

          Four factors explained > 75% of the total variance in the original 10 vulnerability variables: a) social/environmental vulnerability (combined education/poverty/race/green space), b) social isolation, c) air conditioning prevalence, and d) proportion elderly/diabetes. We found substantial spatial variability of heat vulnerability nationally, with generally higher vulnerability in the Northeast and Pacific Coast and the lowest in the Southeast. In urban areas, inner cities showed the highest vulnerability to heat.

          Conclusions

          These methods provide a template for making local and regional heat vulnerability maps. After validation using health outcome data, interventions can be targeted at the most vulnerable populations.

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          Most cited references49

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          More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century.

          A global coupled climate model shows that there is a distinct geographic pattern to future changes in heat waves. Model results for areas of Europe and North America, associated with the severe heat waves in Chicago in 1995 and Paris in 2003, show that future heat waves in these areas will become more intense, more frequent, and longer lasting in the second half of the 21st century. Observations and the model show that present-day heat waves over Europe and North America coincide with a specific atmospheric circulation pattern that is intensified by ongoing increases in greenhouse gases, indicating that it will produce more severe heat waves in those regions in the future.
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            Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards*

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              Neighborhood microclimates and vulnerability to heat stress.

              Human exposure to excessively warm weather, especially in cities, is an increasingly important public health problem. This study examined heat-related health inequalities within one city in order to understand the relationships between the microclimates of urban neighborhoods, population characteristics, thermal environments that regulate microclimates, and the resources people possess to cope with climatic conditions. A simulation model was used to estimate an outdoor human thermal comfort index (HTCI) as a function of local climate variables collected in 8 diverse city neighborhoods during the summer of 2003 in Phoenix, USA. HTCI is an indicator of heat stress, a condition that can cause illness and death. There were statistically significant differences in temperatures and HTCI between the neighborhoods during the entire summer, which increased during a heat wave period. Lower socioeconomic and ethnic minority groups were more likely to live in warmer neighborhoods with greater exposure to heat stress. High settlement density, sparse vegetation, and having no open space in the neighborhood were significantly correlated with higher temperatures and HTCI. People in warmer neighborhoods were more vulnerable to heat exposure because they had fewer social and material resources to cope with extreme heat. Urban heat island reduction policies should specifically target vulnerable residential areas and take into account equitable distribution and preservation of environmental resources.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Environ Health Perspect
                Environmental Health Perspectives
                National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences
                0091-6765
                1552-9924
                November 2009
                10 June 2009
                : 117
                : 11
                : 1730-1736
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Environmental Health Sciences Division, School of Public Health, University of California at Berkeley, California, USA
                [2 ] School of Public Health and
                [3 ] School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
                [4 ] Harvard University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
                Author notes
                Address correspondence to C. Reid, Environmental Health Sciences Division, School of Public Health, University of California at Berkeley, 50 University Hall #7360, Berkely, CA 94720-7360, USA. Telephone: 510-643-9257. Fax: 510-642-5815. E-mail: creid@ 123456berkeley.edu
                [*]

                C.E.R was an Association of Schools of Public Health Environmental Health Fellow at U.S. Environmental Protection Agency when this work was done.

                The authors declare they have no competing financial interests.

                Article
                ehp-117-1730
                10.1289/ehp.0900683
                2801183
                20049125
                5c28a001-ea9d-4bd9-be49-d0a19efa9b76
                This is an Open Access article: verbatim copying and redistribution of this article are permitted in all media for any purpose, provided this notice is preserved along with the article's original DOI.
                History
                : 12 February 2009
                : 10 June 2009
                Categories
                Research

                Public health
                environmental health,vulnerable populations,heat,climate,geographic information systems,public health

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