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      Developmental disabilities among children younger than 5 years in 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

      research-article
      Global Research on Developmental Disabilities Collaborators
      The Lancet. Global Health
      Elsevier Ltd

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          Summary

          Background

          The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) mandate systematic monitoring of the health and wellbeing of all children to achieve optimal early childhood development. However, global epidemiological data on children with developmental disabilities are scarce. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) for development disabilities among children younger than 5 years in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016.

          Methods

          We estimated prevalence and YLDs for epilepsy, intellectual disability, hearing loss, vision loss, autism spectrum disorder, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. YLDs were estimated as the product of the prevalence estimate and the disability weight for each mutually exclusive disorder, corrected for comorbidity. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, on a pool of primary data derived from systematic reviews of the literature, health surveys, hospital and claims databases, cohort studies, and disease-specific registries.

          Findings

          Globally, 52·9 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 48·7–57·3; or 8·4% [7·7–9·1]) children younger than 5 years (54% males) had developmental disabilities in 2016 compared with 53·0 million (49·0–57·1; or 8·9% [8·2–9·5]) in 1990. About 95% of these children lived in low-income and middle-income countries. YLDs among these children increased from 3·8 million (95% UI 2·8–4·9) in 1990 to 3·9 million (2·9–5·2) in 2016. These disabilities accounted for 13·3% of the 29·3 million YLDs for all health conditions among children younger than 5 years in 2016. Vision loss was the most prevalent disability, followed by hearing loss, intellectual disability, and autism spectrum disorder. However, intellectual disability was the largest contributor to YLDs in both 1990 and 2016. Although the prevalence of developmental disabilities among children younger than 5 years decreased in all countries (except for North America) between 1990 and 2016, the number of children with developmental disabilities increased significantly in sub-Saharan Africa (71·3%) and in North Africa and the Middle East (7·6%). South Asia had the highest prevalence of children with developmental disabilities in 2016 and North America had the lowest.

          Interpretation

          The global burden of developmental disabilities has not significantly improved since 1990, suggesting inadequate global attention on the developmental potential of children who survived childhood as a result of child survival programmes, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. The SDGs provide a framework for policy and action to address the needs of children with or at risk of developmental disabilities, particularly in resource-poor countries.

          Funding

          The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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          Most cited references18

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          Global, regional, and national levels and trends in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2015, with scenario-based projections to 2030: a systematic analysis by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation.

          In 2000, world leaders agreed on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). MDG 4 called for a two-thirds reduction in the under-5 mortality rate between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to estimate levels and trends in under-5 mortality for 195 countries from 1990 to 2015 to assess MDG 4 achievement and then intended to project how various post-2015 targets and observed rates of change will affect the burden of under-5 deaths from 2016 to 2030.
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            An update on the prevalence of cerebral palsy: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

            The aim of this study was to provide a comprehensive update on (1) the overall prevalence of cerebral palsy (CP); (2) the prevalence of CP in relation to birthweight; and (3) the prevalence of CP in relation to gestational age. A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted and reported, based on the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses) statement. Population-based studies on the prevalence of CP in children born in 1985 or after were selected. Statistical analysis was carried out using computer package R, version 2.14. A total of 49 studies were selected for this review. The pooled overall prevalence of CP was 2.11 per 1000 live births (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.98-2.25). The prevalence of CP stratified by gestational age group showed the highest pooled prevalence to be in children weighing 1000 to 1499g at birth (59.18 per 1000 live births; 95% CI 53.06-66.01), although there was no significant difference on pairwise meta-regression with children weighing less than 1000g. The prevalence of CP expressed by gestational age was highest in children born before 28 weeks' gestation (111.80 per 1000 live births; 95% CI 69.53-179.78; p<0.0327). The overall prevalence of CP has remained constant in recent years despite increased survival of at-risk preterm infants. © The Authors. Developmental Medicine & Child Neurology © 2013 Mac Keith Press.
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              The Changing Epidemiology of Autism Spectrum Disorders

              Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a complex neurodevelopmental condition with lifelong impacts. Genetic and environmental factors contribute to ASD etiology, which remains incompletely understood. Research on ASD epidemiology has made significant advances in the past decade. Current prevalence is estimated to be at least 1.5% in developed countries, with recent increases primarily among those without comorbid intellectual disability. Genetic studies have identified a number of rare de novo mutations and gained footing in the areas of polygenic risk, epigenetics, and gene-by-environment interaction. Epidemiologic investigations focused on nongenetic factors have established advanced parental age and preterm birth as ASD risk factors, indicated that prenatal exposure to air pollution and short interpregnancy interval are potential risk factors, and suggested the need for further exploration of certain prenatal nutrients, metabolic conditions, and exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals. We discuss future challenges and goals for ASD epidemiology as well as public health implications.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Lancet Glob Health
                Lancet Glob Health
                The Lancet. Global Health
                Elsevier Ltd
                2214-109X
                29 August 2018
                October 2018
                29 August 2018
                : 6
                : 10
                : e1100-e1121
                Author notes
                [* ]Correspondence to: Dr Bolajoko O Olusanya, Centre for Healthy Start Initiative, Ikoyi, Lagos, Nigeria bolajoko.olusanya@ 123456uclmail.net
                [†]

                Collaborators listed at the end of the Article

                Article
                S2214-109X(18)30309-7
                10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30309-7
                6139259
                30172774
                5c364a1e-5207-405a-9ab3-5b4104600c1a
                © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY 4.0 license

                This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

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