Global estimates of diabetes prevalence for 2013 and projections for 2035

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Abstract

Diabetes is a serious and increasing global health burden and estimates of prevalence are essential for appropriate allocation of resources and monitoring of trends. We conducted a literature search of studies reporting the age-specific prevalence for diabetes and used the Analytic Hierarchy Process to systematically select studies to generate estimates for 219 countries and territories. Estimates for countries without available source data were modelled from pooled estimates of countries that were similar in regard to geography, ethnicity, and economic development. Logistic regression was applied to generate smoothed age-specific prevalence estimates for adults 20-79 years which were then applied to population estimates for 2013 and 2035. A total of 744 data sources were considered and 174 included, representing 130 countries. In 2013, 382 million people had diabetes; this number is expected to rise to 592 million by 2035. Most people with diabetes live in low- and middle-income countries and these will experience the greatest increase in cases of diabetes over the next 22 years. The new estimates of diabetes in adults confirm the large burden of diabetes, especially in developing countries. Estimates will be updated annually including the most recent, high-quality data available. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

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Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process

Thomas L. Saaty (2008)

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Global estimates of the prevalence of diabetes for 2010 and 2030.

J E Shaw, R. A. Sicree, P Zimmet (2010)

We estimated the number of people worldwide with diabetes for the years 2010 and 2030. Studies from 91 countries were used to calculate age- and sex-specific diabetes prevalences, which were applied to national population estimates, to determine national diabetes prevalences for all 216 countries for 2010 and 2030. Studies were identified using Medline, and contact with all national and regional International Diabetes Federation offices. Studies were included if diabetes prevalence was assessed using a population-based methodology, and was based on World Health Organization or American Diabetes Association diagnostic criteria for at least three separate age-groups within the 20-79 year range. Self-report or registry data were used if blood glucose assessment was not available. The world prevalence of diabetes among adults (aged 20-79 years) will be 6.4%, affecting 285 million adults, in 2010, and will increase to 7.7%, and 439 million adults by 2030. Between 2010 and 2030, there will be a 69% increase in numbers of adults with diabetes in developing countries and a 20% increase in developed countries. These predictions, based on a larger number of studies than previous estimates, indicate a growing burden of diabetes, particularly in developing countries. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.