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      Carotid Plaque Morphology Improves Stroke Risk Prediction: Usefulness of a New Ultrasonographic Score

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          Abstract

          Carotid thickening and plaque detected by B-mode imaging ultrasound are useful to improve the ischemic risk evaluation in asymptomatic subjects over and beyond the traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Some plaque’s echographic parameters help describing the vascular risk. We hypothesized that the stenosis degree, plaque surface irregularity, echolucency and texture, compounded in a Total Plaque Risk Score (TPRS), are predictors of the ischemic events in the San Daniele study, a general population-based study of 1,348 subjects followed for 12 years in average. In the 171 subjects with at least one plaque at baseline, high TPRS was the most powerful independent predictor of cerebrovascular events, which occurred in 115 subjects. Addition of plaque characteristics significantly increased the area under the ROC curve (0.90 vs. 0.88, p = 0.04) versus the Framingham risk score alone. The TPRS is a potential new tool to improve the stroke risk prediction.

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          Most cited references14

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          Ultrasonic echolucent carotid plaques predict future strokes.

          We tested prospectively the hypothesis that stroke development can be predicted by echolucency of carotid atherosclerotic plaques in previously symptomatic and asymptomatic patients. We followed incidence of ipsilateral ischemic strokes for 4.4 years in 111 asymptomatic and 135 symptomatic patients with >/=50% relevant carotid artery stenosis. At inclusion, echogenicity of carotid plaques and degree of stenosis were evaluated with high-resolution B-mode ultrasound with computer-assisted image processing and Doppler ultrasound, respectively. We observed 44 ipsilateral ischemic strokes. In symptomatic patients, relative risk of ipsilateral ischemic stroke for echolucent versus echorich plaques was 3.1 (95% CI, 1.3 to 7.3), whereas for 80% to 99% versus 50% to 79% stenosis, the relative risk was 1.4 (95% CI, 0.7 to 3.0). Relative to symptomatic patients with echorich 50% to 79% stenotic plaques, those with echorich 80% to 99% stenotic plaques, echolucent 50% to 79% stenotic plaques, and echolucent 80% to 99% stenotic plaques had relative risks of ipsilateral ischemic strokes of 3.1 (95%CI, 0.7 to 14), 4.2 (95% CI, 1.2 to 15), and 7.9 (95% CI, 2.1 to 30), equivalent to absolute risk increases of 11%, 18%, and 28%. This was not observed in previously asymptomatic patients. Echolucent plaques causing >/=50% diameter stenosis by Doppler ultrasound are associated with risk of future stroke in symptomatic but not asymptomatic individuals. This suggests that measurement of echolucency, together with degree of stenosis, may improve selection of patients for carotid endarterectomy.
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            Carotid plaque, a subclinical precursor of vascular events: the Northern Manhattan Study.

            Carotid atherosclerosis is a known biomarker associated with future vascular disease. The risk associated with small, nonstenotic carotid plaques is less clear. The objective of this study was to examine the association between maximum carotid plaque thickness and risk of vascular events in an urban multiethnic cohort. As part of the population-based Northern Manhattan Study, carotid plaque was analyzed among 2,189 subjects. Maximum carotid plaque thickness was evaluated at the cutoff level of 1.9 mm, a prespecified value of the 75th percentile of the plaque thickness distribution. The primary outcome measure was combined vascular events (ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, or vascular death). Carotid plaque was present in 1,263 (58%) subjects. After a mean follow-up of 6.9 years, vascular events occurred among 319 subjects; 121 had fatal or nonfatal ischemic stroke, 118 had fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction, and 166 died of vascular causes. Subjects with maximum carotid plaque thickness greater than 1.9 mm had a 2.8-fold increased risk of combined vascular events in comparison to the subjects without carotid plaque (hazard ratio, 2.80; 95% CI, 2.04-3.84). In fully adjusted models, this association was significant only among Hispanics. Approximately 44% of the low-risk individuals by Framingham risk score had a 10-year vascular risk of 18.3% if having carotid plaque. Maximum carotid plaque thickness is a simple and noninvasive marker of subclinical atherosclerosis associated with increased risk of vascular outcomes in a multiethnic cohort. Maximum carotid plaque thickness may be a simple and nonexpensive tool to assist with vascular risk stratification in preventive strategies and a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials.
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              Monocyte count is a predictor of novel plaque formation: a 7-year follow-up study of 2610 persons without carotid plaque at baseline the Tromsø Study.

              Activation of monocytes and differentiation into lipid-laden macrophages are fundamental events in generation of atherosclerotic lesions. There exist few data on monocyte activity and the risk for atherosclerosis. In this prospective population-based study, we examined whether monocyte count in blood is a predictor of future plaque formation in persons without pre-existing carotid atherosclerosis. At baseline, we measured monocyte count, white cell count (WCC), fibrinogen, intima-media thickness (IMT), and traditional cardiovascular risk factors in 2610 men and women aged 25 to 82 years who on ultrasound had no plaque in their right carotid artery. After 7 years of follow-up, a new ultrasound screening was performed and the number of novel plaques was grouped as none, 1 plaque, and 2 or more plaques. In multivariate analysis, monocyte count, age, sex, total cholesterol, current smoking, systolic blood pressure, and IMT were independent predictors of novel plaque formation. No significant association was found between plaque formation and either WCC or fibrinogen. For 1 standard deviation (0.17x10(9)) increase in monocyte count, the risk of being in a higher plaque category increased by 18% (OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.29). In the highest monocyte quartile, the risk for having plaque compared with the lowest quartile was 1.85 (OR) (95% confidence interval, 1.41 to 2.43). Repeating the analysis without IMT did not change the monocyte estimate. Excluding subjects with cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus from analysis neither changed the monocyte estimate. Monocyte count is an independent predictor of future plaque formation in subjects without pre-existing carotid atherosclerosis.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                CED
                Cerebrovasc Dis
                10.1159/issn.1015-9770
                Cerebrovascular Diseases
                S. Karger AG
                1015-9770
                1421-9786
                2011
                February 2011
                04 January 2011
                : 31
                : 3
                : 300-304
                Affiliations
                aNeurology Department, Gervasutta Hospital, Udine, bHaematology Department, S. Bortolo Hospital, Vicenza, cSchool of Specialization in Hospital Pharmacy, University of Milan, Milan, and dGP, Udine, Italy; eNeurology Department, Sourasky Medical Center, Tel Aviv, Israel; fNeurology Department, Bichat University Hospital, Paris, France
                Author notes
                *Dr. Patrizio Prati, Neurology Department, Gervasutta Hospital, Via Gervasutta 48, ASS n° 4 ‘Medio Friuli’, IT–33100 Udine (Italy), Tel. +39 0432 553 360, Fax +39 0432 553 365, E-Mail patrizio.prati@tin.it
                Article
                320852 Cerebrovasc Dis 2011;31:300–304
                10.1159/000320852
                21212660
                5cd9d16c-78a1-4216-b455-0192d6ac3580
                © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel

                Copyright: All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be translated into other languages, reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, microcopying, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Drug Dosage: The authors and the publisher have exerted every effort to ensure that drug selection and dosage set forth in this text are in accord with current recommendations and practice at the time of publication. However, in view of ongoing research, changes in government regulations, and the constant flow of information relating to drug therapy and drug reactions, the reader is urged to check the package insert for each drug for any changes in indications and dosage and for added warnings and precautions. This is particularly important when the recommended agent is a new and/or infrequently employed drug. Disclaimer: The statements, opinions and data contained in this publication are solely those of the individual authors and contributors and not of the publishers and the editor(s). The appearance of advertisements or/and product references in the publication is not a warranty, endorsement, or approval of the products or services advertised or of their effectiveness, quality or safety. The publisher and the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to persons or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content or advertisements.

                History
                : 07 April 2010
                : 20 August 2010
                Page count
                Figures: 2, Tables: 2, Pages: 5
                Categories
                Original Paper

                Geriatric medicine,Neurology,Cardiovascular Medicine,Neurosciences,Clinical Psychology & Psychiatry,Public health
                Prevention,Stroke,Plaque score,Ultrasound,Carotid

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