Stress resilience and subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes in 1.5 million young men

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Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and prediabetes prevalence

James Boyle, Theodore Thompson, Edward Gregg … (2010)

Background People with diabetes can suffer from diverse complications that seriously erode quality of life. Diabetes, costing the United States more than $174 billion per year in 2007, is expected to take an increasingly large financial toll in subsequent years. Accurate projections of diabetes burden are essential to policymakers planning for future health care needs and costs. Methods Using data on prediabetes and diabetes prevalence in the United States, forecasted incidence, and current US Census projections of mortality and migration, the authors constructed a series of dynamic models employing systems of difference equations to project the future burden of diabetes among US adults. A three-state model partitions the US population into no diabetes, undiagnosed diabetes, and diagnosed diabetes. A four-state model divides the state of "no diabetes" into high-risk (prediabetes) and low-risk (normal glucose) states. A five-state model incorporates an intervention designed to prevent or delay diabetes in adults at high risk. Results The authors project that annual diagnosed diabetes incidence (new cases) will increase from about 8 cases per 1,000 in 2008 to about 15 in 2050. Assuming low incidence and relatively high diabetes mortality, total diabetes prevalence (diagnosed and undiagnosed cases) is projected to increase from 14% in 2010 to 21% of the US adult population by 2050. However, if recent increases in diabetes incidence continue and diabetes mortality is relatively low, prevalence will increase to 33% by 2050. A middle-ground scenario projects a prevalence of 25% to 28% by 2050. Intervention can reduce, but not eliminate, increases in diabetes prevalence. Conclusions These projected increases are largely attributable to the aging of the US population, increasing numbers of members of higher-risk minority groups in the population, and people with diabetes living longer. Effective strategies will need to be undertaken to moderate the impact of these factors on national diabetes burden. Our analysis suggests that widespread implementation of reasonably effective preventive interventions focused on high-risk subgroups of the population can considerably reduce, but not eliminate, future increases in diabetes prevalence.

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Inflammation and activated innate immunity in the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes.

John C. Pickup (2004)

There is increasing evidence that an ongoing cytokine-induced acute-phase response (sometimes called low-grade inflammation, but part of a widespread activation of the innate immune system) is closely involved in the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes and associated complications such as dyslipidemia and atherosclerosis. Elevated circulating inflammatory markers such as C-reactive protein and interleukin-6 predict the development of type 2 diabetes, and several drugs with anti-inflammatory properties lower both acute-phase reactants and glycemia (aspirin and thiazolidinediones) and possibly decrease the risk of developing type 2 diabetes (statins). Among the risk factors for type 2 diabetes, which are also known to be associated with activated innate immunity, are age, inactivity, certain dietary components, smoking, psychological stress, and low birth weight. Activated immunity may be the common antecedent of both type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis, which probably develop in parallel. Other features of type 2 diabetes, such as fatigue, sleep disturbance, and depression, are likely to be at least partly due to hypercytokinemia and activated innate immunity. Further research is needed to confirm and clarify the role of innate immunity in type 2 diabetes, particularly the extent to which inflammation in type 2 diabetes is a primary abnormality or partly secondary to hyperglycemia, obesity, atherosclerosis, or other common features of the disease.

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The link between family history and risk of type 2 diabetes is not explained by anthropometric, lifestyle or genetic risk factors: the EPIC-InterAct study.

Judith Márquez-Guzmán, R A Scott, C Langenberg … (2013)

Although a family history of type 2 diabetes is a strong risk factor for the disease, the factors mediating this excess risk are poorly understood. In the InterAct case-cohort study, we investigated the association between a family history of diabetes among different family members and the incidence of type 2 diabetes, as well as the extent to which genetic, anthropometric and lifestyle risk factors mediated this association. A total of 13,869 individuals (including 6,168 incident cases of type 2 diabetes) had family history data available, and 6,887 individuals had complete data on all mediators. Country-specific Prentice-weighted Cox models were fitted within country, and HRs were combined using random effects meta-analysis. Lifestyle and anthropometric measurements were performed at baseline, and a genetic risk score comprising 35 polymorphisms associated with type 2 diabetes was created. A family history of type 2 diabetes was associated with a higher incidence of the condition (HR 2.72, 95% CI 2.48, 2.99). Adjustment for established risk factors including BMI and waist circumference only modestly attenuated this association (HR 2.44, 95% CI 2.03, 2.95); the genetic score alone explained only 2% of the family history-associated risk of type 2 diabetes. The greatest risk of type 2 diabetes was observed in those with a biparental history of type 2 diabetes (HR 5.14, 95% CI 3.74, 7.07) and those whose parents had been diagnosed with diabetes at a younger age (<50 years; HR 4.69, 95% CI 3.35, 6.58), an effect largely confined to a maternal family history. Prominent lifestyle, anthropometric and genetic risk factors explained only a marginal proportion of the excess risk associated with family history, highlighting the fact that family history remains a strong, independent and easily assessed risk factor for type 2 diabetes. Discovering factors that will explain the association of family history with type 2 diabetes risk will provide important insight into the aetiology of type 2 diabetes.

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Journal

Title: Diabetologia

Abbreviated Title: Diabetologia

Publisher: Springer Nature

ISSN (Print): 0012-186X

ISSN (Electronic): 1432-0428

Publication date Created: April 2016

Publication date (Print): January 2016

Volume: 59

Issue: 4

Pages: 728-733

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DOI: 10.1007/s00125-015-3846-7

PMC ID: 4779396

PubMed ID: 26758065

SO-VID: 5e5f0dd5-85c0-4574-8b95-da41cc17741d

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Stress resilience and subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes in 1.5 million young men

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Most cited references 13

Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and prediabetes prevalence

Inflammation and activated innate immunity in the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes.

The link between family history and risk of type 2 diabetes is not explained by anthropometric, lifestyle or genetic risk factors: the EPIC-InterAct study.

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