The prevention research context includes current epidemic levels of hazards associated with extra-medical use of OxyContin® (to get high or otherwise outside prescribed boundaries) among teenagers and young adults, and a recent OxyContin® re-formulation with an intent to reduce these hazards, plus hope for possibly beneficial primary prevention impact. The aim is to create a benchmark of risk estimates for the years just prior to OxyContin® re-formulation in anticipation of potential public health benefit in future years, with a focus on teens and the youngest adults in the United States, and to compare two methods for estimating peak risk.