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      Predicting hurricane regional landfall rates: comparing local and basin-wide track model approaches

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          Abstract

          We compare two methods for making predictions of the climatological distribution of the number of hurricanes making landfall along short sections of the North American coastline. The first method uses local data, and the second method uses a basin-wide track model. Using cross-validation we show that the basin-wide track model gives better predictions for almost all parts of the coastline. This is the first time such a comparison has been made, and is the first rigourous justification for the use of basin-wide track models for predicting hurricane landfall rates and hurricane risk.

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          Simulation of Hurricane Risk in the U.S. Using Empirical Track Model

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            Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory

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              Modeling Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Intensities in the Vicinity of Hawaii*

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                10 November 2006
                Article
                physics/0611103
                5fb8b2d8-cfb3-4ce9-8a43-ebbcb6363c9b
                History
                Custom metadata
                physics.ao-ph

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