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      Future effects of climate and land-use change on terrestrial vertebrate community diversity under different scenarios

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          Abstract

          Land-use and climate change are among the greatest threats facing biodiversity, but understanding their combined effects has been hampered by modelling and data limitations, resulting in part from the very different scales at which land-use and climate processes operate. I combine two different modelling paradigms to predict the separate and combined (additive) effects of climate and land-use change on terrestrial vertebrate communities under four different scenarios. I predict that climate-change effects are likely to become a major pressure on biodiversity in the coming decades, probably matching or exceeding the effects of land-use change by 2070. The combined effects of both pressures are predicted to lead to an average cumulative loss of 37.9% of species from vertebrate communities under ‘business as usual’ (uncertainty ranging from 15.7% to 54.2%). Areas that are predicted to experience the effects of both pressures are concentrated in tropical grasslands and savannahs. The results have important implications for the conservation of biodiversity in future, and for the ability of biodiversity to support important ecosystem functions, upon which humans rely.

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          Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas

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            Biodiversity loss and its impact on humanity.

            The most unique feature of Earth is the existence of life, and the most extraordinary feature of life is its diversity. Approximately 9 million types of plants, animals, protists and fungi inhabit the Earth. So, too, do 7 billion people. Two decades ago, at the first Earth Summit, the vast majority of the world's nations declared that human actions were dismantling the Earth's ecosystems, eliminating genes, species and biological traits at an alarming rate. This observation led to the question of how such loss of biological diversity will alter the functioning of ecosystems and their ability to provide society with the goods and services needed to prosper.
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              The representative concentration pathways: an overview

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Proc Biol Sci
                Proc. Biol. Sci
                RSPB
                royprsb
                Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
                The Royal Society
                0962-8452
                1471-2954
                27 June 2018
                20 June 2018
                20 June 2018
                : 285
                : 1881
                : 20180792
                Affiliations
                Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London , Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK
                Author notes

                Electronic supplementary material is available online at https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.4125098.

                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7361-0051
                Article
                rspb20180792
                10.1098/rspb.2018.0792
                6030534
                29925617
                5fea7e16-e567-414e-835a-9a15e0bf0167
                © 2018 The Authors.

                Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 9 April 2018
                : 29 May 2018
                Funding
                Funded by: Natural Environment Research Council, http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000270;
                Award ID: NE/J011193/2
                Funded by: Royal Society, http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000288;
                Award ID: UF150526
                Categories
                1001
                60
                Ecology
                Research Article
                Custom metadata
                June 27, 2018

                Life sciences
                biodiversity,climate change,future,global,land-use change,scenarios
                Life sciences
                biodiversity, climate change, future, global, land-use change, scenarios

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