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      Chronic kidney disease and risk of major cardiovascular disease and non-vascular mortality: prospective population based cohort study

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          Objective To quantify associations of chronic kidney disease stages with major cardiovascular disease and non-vascular mortality in the general adult population.

          Design Prospective population based cohort study.

          Setting Reykjavik, Iceland.

          Participants 16 958 people aged 33-81 years without manifest vascular disease and with available information on stage of chronic kidney disease (defined by both estimated glomerular filtration rate and urinary protein) at study entry.

          Main outcome measures Hazard ratios for time to major coronary heart disease outcomes and mortality.

          Results 1210 (7%) of participants had chronic kidney disease at entry. During a median follow-up of 24 years, 4010 coronary heart disease outcomes, 559 deaths from stroke, and 3875 deaths from non-vascular causes were recorded. Compared with the reference group (estimated glomerular filtration rate 75-89 ml/min/1.73 m 2 and no proteinuria), people with lower renal function within the normal range of glomerular filtration rate did not have significantly higher risk of coronary heart disease. By contrast, in 1210 (7%) participants with chronic kidney disease at entry, hazard ratios for coronary heart disease, adjusted for several conventional cardiovascular risk factors, were 1.55 (95% confidence interval 1.02 to 2.35) for stage 1, 1.72 (1.30 to 2.24) for stage 2, 1.39 (1.22 to 1.58) for stage 3a, 1.90 (1.22 to 2.96) for stage 3b, and 4.29 (1.78 to 10.32) for stage 4. Information on chronic kidney disease increased discrimination and reclassification indices for coronary heart disease when added to conventional risk factors (P<0.01). The incremental gain provided by chronic kidney disease was lower than that provided by diabetes or smoking (C index increases of 0.0015, 0.0024, and 0.0124 respectively). Hazard ratios with chronic kidney disease were 0.97 (0.82 to 1.15) for cancer mortality and 1.26 (1.07 to 1.50) for other non-vascular mortality.

          Conclusions In people without manifest vascular disease, even the earliest stages of chronic kidney disease are associated with excess risk of subsequent coronary heart disease. Assessment of chronic kidney disease in addition to conventional risk factors modestly improves prediction of risk for coronary heart disease in this population. Further studies are needed to investigate associations between chronic kidney disease and non-vascular mortality from causes other than cancer.

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          Most cited references 26

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          Relation between renal dysfunction and cardiovascular outcomes after myocardial infarction.

          The presence of coexisting conditions has a substantial effect on the outcome of acute myocardial infarction. Renal failure is associated with one of the highest risks, but the influence of milder degrees of renal impairment is less well defined. As part of the Valsartan in Acute Myocardial Infarction Trial (VALIANT), we identified 14,527 patients with acute myocardial infarction complicated by clinical or radiologic signs of heart failure, left ventricular dysfunction, or both, and a documented serum creatinine measurement. Patients were randomly assigned to receive captopril, valsartan, or both. The glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was estimated by means of the four-component Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation, and the patients were grouped according to their estimated GFR. We used a 70-candidate variable model to adjust and compare overall mortality and composite cardiovascular events among four GFR groups. The distribution of estimated GFR was wide and normally shaped, with a mean (+/-SD) value of 70+/-21 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area. The prevalence of coexisting risk factors, prior cardiovascular disease, and a Killip class of more than I was greatest among patients with a reduced estimated GFR (less than 45.0 ml per minute per 1.73 m2), and the use of aspirin, beta-blockers, statins, or coronary-revascularization procedures was lowest in this group. The risk of death or the composite end point of death from cardiovascular causes, reinfarction, congestive heart failure, stroke, or resuscitation after cardiac arrest increased with declining estimated GFRs. Although the rate of renal events increased with declining estimated GFRs, the adverse outcomes were predominantly cardiovascular. Below 81.0 ml per minute per 1.73 m2, each reduction of the estimated GFR by 10 units was associated with a hazard ratio for death and nonfatal cardiovascular outcomes of 1.10 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.08 to 1.12), which was independent of the treatment assignment. Even mild renal disease, as assessed by the estimated GFR, should be considered a major risk factor for cardiovascular complications after a myocardial infarction. Copyright 2004 Massachusetts Medical Society
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            Relation between kidney function, proteinuria, and adverse outcomes.

            The current staging system for chronic kidney disease is based primarily on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) with lower eGFR associated with higher risk of adverse outcomes. Although proteinuria is also associated with adverse outcomes, it is not used to refine risk estimates of adverse events in this current system. To determine the association between reduced GFR, proteinuria, and adverse clinical outcomes. Community-based cohort study with participants identified from a province-wide laboratory registry that includes eGFR and proteinuria measurements from Alberta, Canada, between 2002 and 2007. There were 920 985 adults who had at least 1 outpatient serum creatinine measurement and who did not require renal replacement treatment at baseline. Proteinuria was assessed by urine dipstick or albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR). All-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, and progression to kidney failure. The majority of individuals (89.1%) had an eGFR of 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) or greater. Over median follow-up of 35 months (range, 0-59 months), 27 959 participants (3.0%) died. The fully adjusted rate of all-cause mortality was higher in study participants with lower eGFRs or heavier proteinuria. Adjusted mortality rates were more than 2-fold higher among individuals with heavy proteinuria measured by urine dipstick and eGFR of 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) or greater, as compared with those with eGFR of 45 to 59.9 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and normal protein excretion (rate, 7.2 [95% CI, 6.6-7.8] vs 2.9 [95% CI, 2.7-3.0] per 1000 person-years, respectively; rate ratio, 2.5 [95% CI, 2.3-2.7]). Similar results were observed when proteinuria was measured by ACR (15.9 [95% CI, 14.0-18.1] and 7.0 [95% CI, 6.4-7.6] per 1000 person-years for heavy and absent proteinuria, respectively; rate ratio, 2.3 [95% CI, 2.0-2.6]) and for the outcomes of hospitalization with acute myocardial infarction, end-stage renal disease, and doubling of serum creatinine level. The risks of mortality, myocardial infarction, and progression to kidney failure associated with a given level of eGFR are independently increased in patients with higher levels of proteinuria.
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               SS Chugh (1964)

                Author and article information

                Role: university lecturer
                Role: research associate
                Role: university lecturer
                Role: senior statistician
                Role: professor
                Role: professor
                BMJ : British Medical Journal
                BMJ Publishing Group Ltd.
                30 September 2010
                : 341
                [1 ]Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB1 8RN, UK
                [2 ]Section of Population Health Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
                [3 ]Icelandic Heart Association, Kopavogur, Iceland
                [4 ]University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland
                Author notes
                Correspondence to: E Di Angelantonio  emanuele.diangelantonio@
                © Di Angelantonio et al 2010

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial License, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non commercial and is otherwise in compliance with the license. See: and

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