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      Usefulness of aMAP Risk Score for Predicting Recurrence after Curative Treatment for Hepatocellular Carcinoma within Milan Criteria

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          Abstract

          Introduction

          The aMAP score is a prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in chronic hepatitis patients. This study was conducted to elucidate the utility of this model for predicting initial recurrence of HCC in patients within the Milan criteria after undergoing curative treatment.

          Methods

          Patients with naïve HCC within the Milan criteria ( n = 1,020) and treated from January 2000 to August 2022 were enrolled. The cohort was divided into two groups according to the aMAP score (high ≥60, low <60) and then compared for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS).

          Results

          Comparisons between the high and low groups showed that etiology (HBV:HCV:HBV+HCV:NBNC = 41:79:2:37 vs. 65:589:11:196, p < 0.001), AST (36 vs. 46 IU/L, p < 0.001), and multiple HCC occurrence (15% vs. 22%, p = 0.026) were significantly different. Additionally, median RFS (59.8 vs. 30.9 months; p < 0.001) and median OS (154.1 vs. 83.4 months, p < 0.01) were greater in the low group. As for patients with HCC due to chronic viral hepatitis, there was a significant difference in median RFS between the groups (59.8 vs. 30.6 months, p < 0.001), especially for HCV-positive patients (53.1 vs. 27.2 months, p = 0.002). In patients with HCC due to a nonviral cause, the difference in median RFS between the low (70.9 months) and high (32.0 months) groups was not significant.

          Discussion

          Findings of this retrospective study indicate a significant association of elevated aMAP with worse RFS in patients with HCC caused by chronic viral hepatitis, especially those with HCV. The aMAP score is considered useful to predict not only HCC-carcinogenesis risk but also risk of recurrence following curative treatment.

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          Most cited references32

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          Global cancer statistics 2020: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries

          This article provides an update on the global cancer burden using the GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Worldwide, an estimated 19.3 million new cancer cases (18.1 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and almost 10.0 million cancer deaths (9.9 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) occurred in 2020. Female breast cancer has surpassed lung cancer as the most commonly diagnosed cancer, with an estimated 2.3 million new cases (11.7%), followed by lung (11.4%), colorectal (10.0 %), prostate (7.3%), and stomach (5.6%) cancers. Lung cancer remained the leading cause of cancer death, with an estimated 1.8 million deaths (18%), followed by colorectal (9.4%), liver (8.3%), stomach (7.7%), and female breast (6.9%) cancers. Overall incidence was from 2-fold to 3-fold higher in transitioned versus transitioning countries for both sexes, whereas mortality varied <2-fold for men and little for women. Death rates for female breast and cervical cancers, however, were considerably higher in transitioning versus transitioned countries (15.0 vs 12.8 per 100,000 and 12.4 vs 5.2 per 100,000, respectively). The global cancer burden is expected to be 28.4 million cases in 2040, a 47% rise from 2020, with a larger increase in transitioning (64% to 95%) versus transitioned (32% to 56%) countries due to demographic changes, although this may be further exacerbated by increasing risk factors associated with globalization and a growing economy. Efforts to build a sustainable infrastructure for the dissemination of cancer prevention measures and provision of cancer care in transitioning countries is critical for global cancer control.
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            Investigation of the freely available easy-to-use software ‘EZR' for medical statistics

            Y Kanda (2012)
            Although there are many commercially available statistical software packages, only a few implement a competing risk analysis or a proportional hazards regression model with time-dependent covariates, which are necessary in studies on hematopoietic SCT. In addition, most packages are not clinician friendly, as they require that commands be written based on statistical languages. This report describes the statistical software ‘EZR' (Easy R), which is based on R and R commander. EZR enables the application of statistical functions that are frequently used in clinical studies, such as survival analyses, including competing risk analyses and the use of time-dependent covariates, receiver operating characteristics analyses, meta-analyses, sample size calculation and so on, by point-and-click access. EZR is freely available on our website (http://www.jichi.ac.jp/saitama-sct/SaitamaHP.files/statmed.html) and runs on both Windows (Microsoft Corporation, USA) and Mac OS X (Apple, USA). This report provides instructions for the installation and operation of EZR.
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              EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines: Management of hepatocellular carcinoma

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Oncology
                Oncology
                OCL
                OCL
                Oncology
                S. Karger AG (Basel, Switzerland )
                0030-2414
                1423-0232
                17 July 2023
                September 2023
                : 101
                : 9
                : 575-583
                Affiliations
                [a ]Gastroenterology Center, Ehime Prefectural Central Hospital, Matsuyama, Japan
                [b ]Department of Gastroenterology and Metabology, Ehime University Graduate School of Medicine, Toon, Japan
                Author notes
                Correspondence to: Hideko Ohama, hideko.ohama@ 123456ompu.ac.jp Atsushi Hiraoka, hirage@ 123456m.ehime-u.ac.jp
                Article
                530987
                10.1159/000530987
                10614485
                37459848
                61152696-1094-40f6-ada2-0fc3a4ff4500
                © 2023 The Author(s). Published by S. Karger AG, Basel

                This article is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC) ( http://www.karger.com/Services/OpenAccessLicense). Usage and distribution for commercial purposes requires written permission.

                History
                : 7 February 2023
                : 2 May 2023
                : 2023
                Page count
                Figures: 4, Tables: 2, References: 32, Pages: 9
                Funding
                This is authors’ own study. There is none to declare of receiving funding.
                Categories
                Clinical Study

                hepatocellular carcinoma,amap,recurrence,hepatitis b virus,hepatitis c virus

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