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Abstract
In the life of any species, extinction is the final evolutionary process. It is a
common one at present, as the world is entering a major extinction crisis. The pattern
of extinction and threat is very non-random, with some taxa being more vulnerable
than others. Explaining why some taxa are affected and some escape is a major goal
of conservation biology. More ambitiously, a predictive model could, in principle,
be built by integrating comparable studies of past and present extinctions. We review
progress towards both explanatory and predictive frameworks, comparing correlates
of extinction in different groups at different times. Progress towards explanatory
models for the current crisis is promising, at least in some well-studied taxa, but
the development of a truly predictive model is hampered by the formidable difficulties
of integrating studies of present and past extinctions.