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      The East Asian summer monsoon variability over the last 145 years inferred from the Shihua Cave record, North China

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          Abstract

          The precipitation variability associated with the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) has profound societal implications. Here, we use precisely dated and seasonally-resolved stalagmite oxygen isotope (δ 18O) records from Shihua Cave, North China to reconstruct the EASM variability over the last 145 years. Our record shows a remarkable weakening of the EASM strength since the 1880s, which may be causally linked to the warming of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. The δ 18O record also exhibits a significant ~30-year periodicity, consistent with the instrumental, historical and proxy-based rainfall records from North China, plausibly driven by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Together, these observations imply that ~30-year periodicity is a persistent feature of the EASM, which remains significant with or without anthropogenic forcing. If indeed, the EASM rainfall in North China might decline significantly in the near future, which may affect millions of people in this region.

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          Most cited references 28

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          Climate effects of black carbon aerosols in China and India.

           S Menon (2002)
          In recent decades, there has been a tendency toward increased summer floods in south China, increased drought in north China, and moderate cooling in China and India while most of the world has been warming. We used a global climate model to investigate possible aerosol contributions to these trends. We found precipitation and temperature changes in the model that were comparable to those observed if the aerosols included a large proportion of absorbing black carbon ("soot"), similar to observed amounts. Absorbing aerosols heat the air, alter regional atmospheric stability and vertical motions, and affect the large-scale circulation and hydrologic cycle with significant regional climate effects.
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            Rainy Season of the Asian–Pacific Summer Monsoon*

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              The East Asian summer monsoon: an overview

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                cheng021@xjtu.edu.cn
                Journal
                Sci Rep
                Sci Rep
                Scientific Reports
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                2045-2322
                1 August 2017
                1 August 2017
                2017
                : 7
                Affiliations
                [1 ]ISNI 0000 0001 0599 1243, GRID grid.43169.39, Institute of Global Environmental Change, , Xi’an Jiaotong University, ; Xi’an, 710049 China
                [2 ]ISNI 0000000419368657, GRID grid.17635.36, Department of Earth Sciences, , University of Minnesota, ; Minneapolis, Minnesota 55455 USA
                [3 ]ISNI 0000000119573309, GRID grid.9227.e, State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, , Chinese Academy of Sciences, ; Xi’an, 710061 China
                [4 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1799 286X, GRID grid.464425.5, Faculty of Environmental Economics, , Shanxi University of Finance & Economics, ; Taiyuan, 030006 China
                [5 ]ISNI 0000 0001 0746 4340, GRID grid.253556.2, Department of Earth Sciences, , California State University Dominguez Hills, ; Carson, 90747 USA
                [6 ]ISNI 0000000119573309, GRID grid.9227.e, Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, , Chinese Academy of Sciences, ; Beijing, 100029 China
                Article
                7251
                10.1038/s41598-017-07251-3
                5539322
                28765574
                © The Author(s) 2017

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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