Increasing eutrophication in the coastal seas of China from 1970 to 2050

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Abstract

We analyzed the potential for eutrophication in major seas around China: the Bohai Gulf, Yellow Sea and South China Sea. We model the riverine inputs of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and silica (Si) to coastal seas from 1970 to 2050. Between 1970 and 2000 dissolved N and P inputs to the three seas increased by a factor of 2-5. In contrast, inputs of particulate N and P and dissolved Si, decreased due to damming of rivers. Between 2000 and 2050, the total N and P inputs increase further by 30-200%. Sewage is the dominant source of dissolved N and P in the Bohai Gulf, while agriculture is the primary source in the other seas. In the future, the ratios of Si to N and P decrease, which increases the risk of harmful algal blooms. Sewage treatment may reduce this risk in the Bohai Gulf, and agricultural management in the other seas.

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Eutrophication science: where do we go from here?

Val Smith, David Schindler (2009)

Cultural eutrophication has become the primary water quality issue for most of the freshwater and coastal marine ecosystems in the world. However, despite extensive research during the past four to five decades, many key questions in eutrophication science remain unanswered. Much is yet to be understood concerning the interactions that can occur between nutrients and ecosystem stability: whether they are stable or not, alternate states pose important complexities for the management of aquatic resources. Evidence is also mounting rapidly that nutrients strongly influence the fate and effects of other non-nutrient contaminants, including pathogens. In addition, it will be important to resolve ongoing debates about the optimal design of nutrient loading controls as a water quality management strategy for estuarine and coastal marine ecosystems.