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      Predicting species distributions: use of climatic parameters in BIOCLIM and its impact on predictions of species’ current and future distributions

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      Ecological Modelling
      Elsevier BV

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          Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent?

          Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to have significant impacts on the world's climate on a timescale of decades to centuries. Evidence from long-term monitoring studies is now accumulating and suggests that the climate of the past few decades is anomalous compared with past climate variation, and that recent climatic and atmospheric trends are already affecting species physiology, distribution and phenology.
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            BIOMOD - optimizing predictions of species distributions and projecting potential future shifts under global change

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              Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios.

              Global climates are changing rapidly, with unexpected consequences. Because elements of biodiversity respond intimately to climate as an important driving force of distributional limitation, distributional shifts and biodiversity losses are expected. Nevertheless, in spite of modelling efforts focused on single species or entire ecosystems, a few preliminary surveys of fauna-wide effects, and evidence of climate change-mediated shifts in several species, the likely effects of climate change on species' distributions remain little known, and fauna-wide or community-level effects are almost completely unexplored. Here, using a genetic algorithm and museum specimen occurrence data, we develop ecological niche models for 1,870 species occurring in Mexico and project them onto two climate surfaces modelled for 2055. Although extinctions and drastic range reductions are predicted to be relatively few, species turnover in some local communities is predicted to be high (>40% of species), suggesting that severe ecological perturbations may result.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Ecological Modelling
                Ecological Modelling
                Elsevier BV
                03043800
                August 2005
                August 2005
                : 186
                : 2
                : 251-270
                Article
                10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.01.030
                620770d4-8b1d-4e71-89fd-1c87d3d7fdb9
                © 2005

                http://www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/

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