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      A New Look at Stratospheric Sudden Warmings. Part I: Climatology and Modeling Benchmarks

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      Journal of Climate
      American Meteorological Society

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          Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes.

          Observations show that large variations in the strength of the stratospheric circulation, appearing first above approximately 50 kilometers, descend to the lowermost stratosphere and are followed by anomalous tropospheric weather regimes. During the 60 days after the onset of these events, average surface pressure maps resemble closely the Arctic Oscillation pattern. These stratospheric events also precede shifts in the probability distributions of extreme values of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, the location of storm tracks, and the local likelihood of mid-latitude storms. Our observations suggest that these stratospheric harbingers may be used as a predictor of tropospheric weather regimes.
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            A Dynamical Model of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming

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              Simulation of recent southern hemisphere climate change.

              Recent observations indicate that climate change over the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere is dominated by a strengthening of the circumpolar westerly flow that extends from the surface to the stratosphere. Here we demonstrate that the seasonality, structure, and amplitude of the observed climate trends are simulated in a state-of-the-art atmospheric model run with high vertical resolution that is forced solely by prescribed stratospheric ozone depletion. The results provide evidence that anthropogenic emissions of ozonedepleting gases have had a distinct impact on climate not only at stratospheric levels but at Earth's surface as well.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal of Climate
                J. Climate
                American Meteorological Society
                0894-8755
                1520-0442
                February 2007
                February 2007
                : 20
                : 3
                : 449-469
                Article
                10.1175/JCLI3996.1
                62144ca5-385d-4ea3-bafc-5cd0ebc6e1cb
                © 2007
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