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      Is ambient air pollution associated with onset of sudden infant death syndrome: a case-crossover study in the UK

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          Abstract

          Objectives

          Air pollution has been associated with increased mortality and morbidity in several studies with indications that its effect could be more severe in children. This study examined the relationship between short-term variations in criteria air pollutants and occurrence of sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS).

          Design

          We used a case-crossover study design which is widely applied in air pollution studies and particularly useful for estimating the risk of a rare acute outcome associated with short-term exposure.

          Setting

          The study used data from the West Midlands region in the UK.

          Participants

          We obtained daily time series data on SIDS mortality (ICD-9: 798.0 or ICD-10: R95) for the period 1996–2006 with a total of 211 SIDS events.

          Primary outcome measures

          Daily counts of SIDS events.

          Results

          For an IQR increase in previous day pollutant concentration, the percentage increases (95% CI) in SIDS were 16 (6 to 27) for PM 10, 1 (−7 to 10) for SO 2, 5 (−4 to 14) for CO, −17 (−27 to –6) for O 3, 16 (2 to 31) for NO 2 and 2 (−3 to 8) for NO after controlling for average temperature and national holidays. PM 10 and NO 2 showed relatively consistent association which persisted across different lag structures and after adjusting for copollutants.

          Conclusions

          The results indicated ambient air pollutants, particularly PM 10 and NO 2, may show an association with increased SIDS mortality. Thus, future studies are recommended to understand possible mechanistic explanations on the role of air pollution on SIDS incidence and the ways in which we might reduce pollution exposure among infants.

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          Most cited references45

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          Health effects of fine particulate air pollution: lines that connect.

          Efforts to understand and mitigate thehealth effects of particulate matter (PM) air pollutionhave a rich and interesting history. This review focuseson six substantial lines of research that have been pursued since 1997 that have helped elucidate our understanding about the effects of PM on human health. There hasbeen substantial progress in the evaluation of PM health effects at different time-scales of exposure and in the exploration of the shape of the concentration-response function. There has also been emerging evidence of PM-related cardiovascular health effects and growing knowledge regarding interconnected general pathophysiological pathways that link PM exposure with cardiopulmonary morbidiity and mortality. Despite important gaps in scientific knowledge and continued reasons for some skepticism, a comprehensive evaluation of the research findings provides persuasive evidence that exposure to fine particulate air pollution has adverse effects on cardiopulmonaryhealth. Although much of this research has been motivated by environmental public health policy, these results have important scientific, medical, and public health implications that are broader than debates over legally mandated air quality standards.
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            Case-crossover analyses of air pollution exposure data: referent selection strategies and their implications for bias.

            The case-crossover design has been widely used to study the association between short-term air pollution exposure and the risk of an acute adverse health event. The design uses cases only; for each individual case, exposure just before the event is compared with exposure at other control (or "referent") times. Time-invariant confounders are controlled by making within-subject comparisons. Even more important in the air pollution setting is that time-varying confounders can also be controlled by design by matching referents to the index time. The referent selection strategy is important for reasons in addition to control of confounding. The case-crossover design makes the implicit assumption that there is no trend in exposure across the referent times. In addition, the statistical method that is used-conditional logistic regression-is unbiased only with certain referent strategies. We review here the case-crossover literature in the air pollution context, focusing on key issues regarding referent selection. We conclude with a set of recommendations for choosing a referent strategy with air pollution exposure data. Specifically, we advocate the time-stratified approach to referent selection because it ensures unbiased conditional logistic regression estimates, avoids bias resulting from time trend in the exposure series, and can be tailored to match on specific time-varying confounders.
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              Models for the relationship between ambient temperature and daily mortality.

              Ambient temperature is an important determinant of daily mortality that is of interest both in its own right and as a confounder of other determinants investigated using time-series regressions, in particular, air pollution. The temperature-mortality relationship is often found to be substantially nonlinear and to persist (but change shape) with increasing lag. We review and extend models for such nonlinear multilag forms. Popular models for mortality by temperature at given lag include polynomial and natural cubic spline curves, and the simple but more easily interpreted linear thresholds model, comprising linear relationships for temperatures below and above thresholds and a flat middle section. Most published analyses that have allowed the relationship to persist over multiple lags have done so by assuming that spline or threshold models apply to mean temperature in several lag strata (e.g., lags 0-1, 2-6, and 7-13). However, more flexible models are possible, and a modeling framework using products of basis functions ("cross-basis" functions) suggests a wide range, some used previously and some new. These allow for stepped or smooth changes in the model coefficients as lags increase. Applying a range of models to data from London suggest evidence for relationships up to at least 2 weeks' lag, with smooth models fitting best but lag-stratified threshold models allowing the most direct interpretation. A wide range of multilag nonlinear temperature-mortality relationships can be modeled. More awareness of options should improve investigation of these relationships and help control for confounding by them.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                BMJ Open
                BMJ Open
                bmjopen
                bmjopen
                BMJ Open
                BMJ Publishing Group (BMA House, Tavistock Square, London, WC1H 9JR )
                2044-6055
                2018
                12 April 2018
                : 8
                : 4
                : e018341
                Affiliations
                [1 ] departmentInstitute of Applied Health Research, College of Medical and Dental Sciences , University of Birmingham , Birmingham, UK
                [2 ] departmentCenter for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, Faculty of Medicine , University of Oulu , Oulu, Finland
                [3 ] Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia , Banjul, Gambia
                Author notes
                [Correspondence to ] Dr Ian J Litchfield; i.litchfield@ 123456bham.ac.uk
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1169-5392
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4168-4683
                Article
                bmjopen-2017-018341
                10.1136/bmjopen-2017-018341
                5898297
                29654005
                635c26f8-73a4-4d50-b330-403fb7dcdd45
                © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

                This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt and build upon this work, for commercial use, provided the original work is properly cited. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

                History
                : 21 June 2017
                : 02 February 2018
                : 26 February 2018
                Funding
                Funded by: The Lullaby Trust;
                Categories
                Epidemiology
                Research
                1506
                1692
                655
                Custom metadata
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                Medicine
                epidemiology,community child health,cot death,paediatric thoracic medicine,public health
                Medicine
                epidemiology, community child health, cot death, paediatric thoracic medicine, public health

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