What limits the evolutionary emergence of pathogens?

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Abstract

The ability of a pathogen to cause an epidemic when introduced in a new host population often relies on its ability to adapt to this new environment. Here, we give a brief overview of recent theoretical and empirical studies of such evolutionary emergence of pathogens. We discuss the effects of several ecological and genetic factors that may affect the likelihood of emergence: migration, life history of the infectious agent, host heterogeneity, and the rate and effects of mutations. We contrast different modelling approaches and indicate how details in the way we model each step of a life cycle can have important consequences on the predicted probability of evolutionary emergence. These different theoretical perspectives yield important insights into optimal surveillance and intervention strategies, which should aim for a reduction in the emergence (and re-emergence) of infectious diseases.

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Gene flow and the limits to natural selection

T Lenormand (2002)

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Host phylogeny constrains cross-species emergence and establishment of rabies virus in bats.

Daniel G Streicker, Amy Turmelle, Maarten J. Vonhof … (2010)

For RNA viruses, rapid viral evolution and the biological similarity of closely related host species have been proposed as key determinants of the occurrence and long-term outcome of cross-species transmission. Using a data set of hundreds of rabies viruses sampled from 23 North American bat species, we present a general framework to quantify per capita rates of cross-species transmission and reconstruct historical patterns of viral establishment in new host species using molecular sequence data. These estimates demonstrate diminishing frequencies of both cross-species transmission and host shifts with increasing phylogenetic distance between bat species. Evolutionary constraints on viral host range indicate that host species barriers may trump the intrinsic mutability of RNA viruses in determining the fate of emerging host-virus interactions.