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      Four climate change scenarios for Gypsophila bermejoi G. López ( Caryophyllaceae) to address whether bioclimatic and soil suitability will overlap in the future

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          Abstract

          Climate change has altered the global distribution of many species. Accordingly, we have assessed here the potential shift in the distribution of Gypsophila bermejoi G. López under distinct scenarios of future climate change, this being a species endemic to the Iberian Peninsula. For strict gypsophiles, climatic changes affecting their potential area of distribution could be critical if the new range is not overlapped with suitable soils. Thus, the narrow bioclimatic niche and the endemic nature of this plant could make this species particularly vulnerable to climate change. We used the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) method to study the potential distribution of this taxon under four different scenarios of climate change, pin-pointing relevant changes in the potential distribution of this plant and enabling possible future areas of refuge to be assessed. Such scenarios are defined according to four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) [, which represent different trends in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. As a result, we predict notable changes in the potential distribution of G. bermejoi, and the overlap between soil and bioclimatic suitability would be affected. We also used a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to model the bioclimatic niche of this species, comparing it with that of its parental taxa. The evolution of bioclimatic suitability was assessed at the current locations of G. bermejoi and as this plant is a strict gypsophile, we generated suitability maps for sites with gypsum soils. Ultimately, this study identifies relevant changes in the potential distribution of G. bermejoi under specific climatic scenarios, observing remarkable differences in the outcomes of the different climate change scenarios. Interestingly, in some scenarios the bioclimatic suitability of G. bermejoi will be enhanced at many locations and even in the worst scenario some possible refuge areas were identified. G. bermejoi behaves more like a hardy survivor than as early victim.

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          Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change

          Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups. These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research. Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change. Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected. Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming. Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species' ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins. Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level.
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            Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100.

            Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
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              Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: SupervisionRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: SupervisionRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: InvestigationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: ResourcesRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS ONE
                plos
                plosone
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1932-6203
                13 June 2019
                2019
                : 14
                : 6
                : e0218160
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Departamento de Ciencias de la Vida. Facultad de Biología, C. Ambientales y Químicas Universidad de Alcaláo, Alcalá de Henares (Madrid), Spain
                [2 ] Departamento de Sistemas y Recursos Naturales, E.T.S.I. Montes, Forestal y del Medio Natural, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
                University of Michigan, UNITED STATES
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1565-7454
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5591-5721
                Article
                PONE-D-18-21453
                10.1371/journal.pone.0218160
                6564006
                31194783
                6402fc6b-d35c-426b-a7a9-e3dd93b2d53d
                © 2019 de Luis et al

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 23 July 2018
                : 28 May 2019
                Page count
                Figures: 7, Tables: 5, Pages: 21
                Funding
                The author(s) received no specific funding for this work.
                Categories
                Research Article
                Earth Sciences
                Atmospheric Science
                Climatology
                Climate Change
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Ecology
                Ecological Niches
                Ecology and Environmental Sciences
                Ecology
                Ecological Niches
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Ecology
                Ecological Metrics
                Extinction Risk
                Ecology and Environmental Sciences
                Ecology
                Ecological Metrics
                Extinction Risk
                Ecology and Environmental Sciences
                Conservation Science
                Earth Sciences
                Atmospheric Science
                Atmospheric Chemistry
                Greenhouse Gases
                Carbon Dioxide
                Physical Sciences
                Chemistry
                Environmental Chemistry
                Atmospheric Chemistry
                Greenhouse Gases
                Carbon Dioxide
                Ecology and Environmental Sciences
                Environmental Chemistry
                Atmospheric Chemistry
                Greenhouse Gases
                Carbon Dioxide
                Physical Sciences
                Chemistry
                Chemical Compounds
                Carbon Dioxide
                Earth Sciences
                Seasons
                Summer
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Ecology
                Biodiversity
                Ecology and Environmental Sciences
                Ecology
                Biodiversity
                Physical Sciences
                Physics
                Thermodynamics
                Entropy
                Custom metadata
                All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files.

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