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      Filling the Disaster Data Gap: Lessons from Cataloging Singapore’s Past Disasters

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          Abstract

          International disaster databases and catalogs provide a baseline for researchers, governments, communities, and organizations to understand the risk of a particular place, analyze broader trends in disaster risk, and justify investments in mitigation. Perhaps because Singapore is routinely identified as one of the safest countries in the world, Singapore’s past disasters have not been studied extensively with few events captured in major global databases such as EM-DAT. In this article, we fill the disaster data gap for postwar Singapore (1950–2020) using specified metrics through an archival search, review of literature, and analysis of secondary sources. We present four key lessons from cataloging these events. First, we expand Singapore’s disaster catalog to 39 events in this time period and quantify the extent of this data gap. Second, we identify the mitigating actions that have followed past events that contribute to Singapore’s present-day safety. Third, we discuss how these past events uncover continuities among vulnerability bearers in Singapore. Last, we identify limitations of a disaster catalog when considering future risks. In expanding the disaster catalog, this case study of Singapore supports the need for comprehensive understanding of past disasters in order to examine current and future disaster resilience.

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          Estimated Global Mortality Attributable to Smoke from Landscape Fires

          Background: Forest, grass, and peat fires release approximately 2 petagrams of carbon into the atmosphere each year, influencing weather, climate, and air quality. Objective: We estimated the annual global mortality attributable to landscape fire smoke (LFS). Methods: Daily and annual exposure to particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) from fire emissions was estimated globally for 1997 through 2006 by combining outputs from a chemical transport model with satellite-based observations of aerosol optical depth. In World Health Organization (WHO) subregions classified as sporadically affected, the daily burden of mortality was estimated using previously published concentration–response coefficients for the association between short-term elevations in PM2.5 from LFS (contrasted with 0 μg/m3 from LFS) and all-cause mortality. In subregions classified as chronically affected, the annual burden of mortality was estimated using the American Cancer Society study coefficient for the association between long-term PM2.5 exposure and all-cause mortality. The annual average PM2.5 estimates were contrasted with theoretical minimum (counterfactual) concentrations in each chronically affected subregion. Sensitivity of mortality estimates to different exposure assessments, counterfactual estimates, and concentration–response functions was evaluated. Strong La Niña and El Niño years were compared to assess the influence of interannual climatic variability. Results: Our principal estimate for the average mortality attributable to LFS exposure was 339,000 deaths annually. In sensitivity analyses the interquartile range of all tested estimates was 260,000–600,000. The regions most affected were sub-Saharan Africa (157,000) and Southeast Asia (110,000). Estimated annual mortality during La Niña was 262,000, compared with 532,000 during El Niño. Conclusions: Fire emissions are an important contributor to global mortality. Adverse health outcomes associated with LFS could be substantially reduced by curtailing burning of tropical rainforests, which rarely burn naturally. The large estimated influence of El Niño suggests a relationship between climate and the burden of mortality attributable to LFS.
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            Epidemiology and control of hand, foot and mouth disease in Singapore, 2001-2007.

            We reviewed the epidemiology of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Singapore after the 2000 epidemic caused by Enterovirus 71 (EV71), with particular reference to the cyclical pattern, predominant circulating enteroviruses and impact of prevention and control measures in preschool centres. We analysed the epidemiological data from all clinical cases and deaths of HFMD diagnosed by medical practitioners and notified to the Ministry of Health, as well as laboratory data on enteroviruses detected among HFMD patients maintained by the Department of Pathology, Singapore General Hospital, and the Microbiology Laboratory, KK Women's and Children's Hospital from 2001 to 2007. The incidence rate was highest in the 0 to 4 years old age group, with males being predominant. Three deaths were reported between January and February 2001. Nationwide epidemics occurred periodically; the predominating circulating virus was Coxsackievirus A16 (CA16) in the 2002, 2005 and 2007 epidemics, and EV71 in the 2006 epidemic. During the epidemic years between 2005 and 2007, 2 peaks were observed. The number of institutional outbreaks had increased 10-fold from 167 in 2001 to 1723 in 2007, although most of these outbreaks were rapidly brought under control with an attack rate of less than 10%. HFMD remains an important public health problem in Singapore with the annual incidence rate per 100,000 population increasing from 125.5 in 2001 to 435.9 in 2007, despite stringent measures taken in preschool centres to prevent the transmission of infection. A high degree of vigilance should be maintained over the disease situation, in particular, surveillance of EV 71 which continues to cause severe complications and deaths in the region.
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              Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change

              As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the representation of uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change is probabilistic, based on ensembles of climate model simulations. In the face of deep uncertainties, the known limitations of this approach are becoming increasingly apparent. An alternative is thus emerging which may be called a ‘storyline’ approach. We define a storyline as a physically self-consistent unfolding of past events, or of plausible future events or pathways. No a priori probability of the storyline is assessed; emphasis is placed instead on understanding the driving factors involved, and the plausibility of those factors. We introduce a typology of four reasons for using storylines to represent uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change: (i) improving risk awareness by framing risk in an event-oriented rather than a probabilistic manner, which corresponds more directly to how people perceive and respond to risk; (ii) strengthening decision-making by allowing one to work backward from a particular vulnerability or decision point, combining climate change information with other relevant factors to address compound risk and develop appropriate stress tests; (iii) providing a physical basis for partitioning uncertainty, thereby allowing the use of more credible regional models in a conditioned manner and (iv) exploring the boundaries of plausibility, thereby guarding against false precision and surprise. Storylines also offer a powerful way of linking physical with human aspects of climate change.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                ycl@unm.edu
                Journal
                Int J Disaster Risk Sci
                International Journal of Disaster Risk Science
                Beijing Normal University Press (Beijing )
                2095-0055
                2192-6395
                3 February 2021
                3 February 2021
                : 1-17
                Affiliations
                [1 ]GRID grid.266832.b, ISNI 0000 0001 2188 8502, Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, , University of New Mexico, ; Albuquerque, NM 87131 USA
                [2 ]GRID grid.59025.3b, ISNI 0000 0001 2224 0361, Asian School of the Environment, , Nanyang Technological University, ; Singapore, 639798 Singapore
                [3 ]GRID grid.484099.8, Earth Observatory of Singapore, ; Singapore, 639798 Singapore
                [4 ]GRID grid.265219.b, ISNI 0000 0001 2217 8588, Disaster Resilience Leadership Academy, , Tulane University, ; New Orleans, LA 70112 USA
                Article
                331
                10.1007/s13753-021-00331-z
                7856847
                64f2a987-088e-4735-8964-d475851f8a79
                © The Author(s) 2021

                Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                : 12 January 2021
                Categories
                Article

                catalog,database,data gap,disasters,resilience,singapore
                catalog, database, data gap, disasters, resilience, singapore

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