Identification of Symptoms Prognostic of COVID-19 Severity: Multivariate Data Analysis of a Case Series in Henan Province

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Abstract

Background

The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which causes coronavirus disease (COVID-19), has been declared a global pandemic. Identifying individuals whose infection can potentially become severe is critical to control the case fatality rate of COVID-19. However, knowledge of symptoms that are prognostic of COVID-19 severity is lacking.

Objective

The objective of our study was to identify symptoms prognostic of COVID-19 infection severity.

Methods

We analyzed documented symptoms, including fever, cough, fatigue, expectoration, sore throat, chest distress, headache, diarrhea, rhinorrhea, stuffed nose, nausea, vomiting, muscle or joint ache, shortness of breath, and their associations with disease severity using a case series, including 655 confirmed cases from January 23 to February 5, 2020 in Henan Province, China. We also analyzed the influence of individual characteristics, including age, gender, and comorbidities, on symptoms with prognostic value.

Results

Fatigue (95% CI 0.141 to 0.334, P<.001), expectoration (95% CI 0.107 to 0.305, P<.001) and stuffed nose (95% CI –0.499 to –0.082, P=.006) were identified as the prognostic symptoms of COVID-19 patients from the multivariate analysis. Fever occurred in 603/655 (92.1%) of the patients but was not associated with disease severity. Fatigue accounted for 184/655 (28.1%) of the patients and was linearly associated with infection severity with statistical significance. Expectoration occurred in 169/655 (25.8%) patients in the cohort and was the sole prognostic factor for patients with cardiovascular complications, including hypertension. Shortness of breath, chest distress, muscle or joint ache, and dry cough, which occurred in 33 (5%), 83 (12.7%), 78 (11.9%), and 276 (42.1%) of the 655 patients, respectively, were significantly enriched among patients classified as severe. Stuffed nose and nausea were associated with favorable disease severity, especially among male patients. More female than male patients were documented as having muscle or joint ache. Headache was most enriched in patents aged 15 to 39 years, followed by those aged 40 to 64 years, with statistical significance.

Conclusions

Fatigue and expectoration are signs of severe COVID-19 infection. Shortness of breath, chest distress, muscle or joint ache, and dry cough are prevalent in severe patients. Expectoration is commonly present in older individuals and patients with cardiovascular disorders, including hypertension. Shortness of breath is prognostic of severe infection in male patients. Stuffed nose and nausea are favorable prognostic factors of severe infection, especially among male patients.

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Most cited references 17

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Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China

Chaolin Huang, Yeming Wang, Xingwang Li … (2020)

Summary Background A recent cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, China, was caused by a novel betacoronavirus, the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). We report the epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics and treatment and clinical outcomes of these patients. Methods All patients with suspected 2019-nCoV were admitted to a designated hospital in Wuhan. We prospectively collected and analysed data on patients with laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection by real-time RT-PCR and next-generation sequencing. Data were obtained with standardised data collection forms shared by WHO and the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium from electronic medical records. Researchers also directly communicated with patients or their families to ascertain epidemiological and symptom data. Outcomes were also compared between patients who had been admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) and those who had not. Findings By Jan 2, 2020, 41 admitted hospital patients had been identified as having laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection. Most of the infected patients were men (30 [73%] of 41); less than half had underlying diseases (13 [32%]), including diabetes (eight [20%]), hypertension (six [15%]), and cardiovascular disease (six [15%]). Median age was 49·0 years (IQR 41·0–58·0). 27 (66%) of 41 patients had been exposed to Huanan seafood market. One family cluster was found. Common symptoms at onset of illness were fever (40 [98%] of 41 patients), cough (31 [76%]), and myalgia or fatigue (18 [44%]); less common symptoms were sputum production (11 [28%] of 39), headache (three [8%] of 38), haemoptysis (two [5%] of 39), and diarrhoea (one [3%] of 38). Dyspnoea developed in 22 (55%) of 40 patients (median time from illness onset to dyspnoea 8·0 days [IQR 5·0–13·0]). 26 (63%) of 41 patients had lymphopenia. All 41 patients had pneumonia with abnormal findings on chest CT. Complications included acute respiratory distress syndrome (12 [29%]), RNAaemia (six [15%]), acute cardiac injury (five [12%]) and secondary infection (four [10%]). 13 (32%) patients were admitted to an ICU and six (15%) died. Compared with non-ICU patients, ICU patients had higher plasma levels of IL2, IL7, IL10, GSCF, IP10, MCP1, MIP1A, and TNFα. Interpretation The 2019-nCoV infection caused clusters of severe respiratory illness similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and was associated with ICU admission and high mortality. Major gaps in our knowledge of the origin, epidemiology, duration of human transmission, and clinical spectrum of disease need fulfilment by future studies. Funding Ministry of Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China, and Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission.

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Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China

Wei-jie Guan, Zheng-yi Ni, Yu Hu … (2020)

Abstract Background Since December 2019, when coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) emerged in Wuhan city and rapidly spread throughout China, data have been needed on the clinical characteristics of the affected patients. Methods We extracted data regarding 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 from 552 hospitals in 30 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in mainland China through January 29, 2020. The primary composite end point was admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), the use of mechanical ventilation, or death. Results The median age of the patients was 47 years; 41.9% of the patients were female. The primary composite end point occurred in 67 patients (6.1%), including 5.0% who were admitted to the ICU, 2.3% who underwent invasive mechanical ventilation, and 1.4% who died. Only 1.9% of the patients had a history of direct contact with wildlife. Among nonresidents of Wuhan, 72.3% had contact with residents of Wuhan, including 31.3% who had visited the city. The most common symptoms were fever (43.8% on admission and 88.7% during hospitalization) and cough (67.8%). Diarrhea was uncommon (3.8%). The median incubation period was 4 days (interquartile range, 2 to 7). On admission, ground-glass opacity was the most common radiologic finding on chest computed tomography (CT) (56.4%). No radiographic or CT abnormality was found in 157 of 877 patients (17.9%) with nonsevere disease and in 5 of 173 patients (2.9%) with severe disease. Lymphocytopenia was present in 83.2% of the patients on admission. Conclusions During the first 2 months of the current outbreak, Covid-19 spread rapidly throughout China and caused varying degrees of illness. Patients often presented without fever, and many did not have abnormal radiologic findings. (Funded by the National Health Commission of China and others.)

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A Novel Coronavirus from Patients with Pneumonia in China, 2019

Na Zhu, Dingyu Zhang, Wenling Wang … (2020)

Summary In December 2019, a cluster of patients with pneumonia of unknown cause was linked to a seafood wholesale market in Wuhan, China. A previously unknown betacoronavirus was discovered through the use of unbiased sequencing in samples from patients with pneumonia. Human airway epithelial cells were used to isolate a novel coronavirus, named 2019-nCoV, which formed a clade within the subgenus sarbecovirus, Orthocoronavirinae subfamily. Different from both MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV, 2019-nCoV is the seventh member of the family of coronaviruses that infect humans. Enhanced surveillance and further investigation are ongoing. (Funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China and the National Major Project for Control and Prevention of Infectious Disease in China.)

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Author and article information

Contributors

Xiaofeng Dai:

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0006-4042

Wuxi School of MedicineJiangnan UniversityLihu Avenue 1800Wuxi, 214122China86 181688701691281423490@qq.com

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): J Med Internet Res

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): J. Med. Internet Res

Journal ID (publisher-id): JMIR

Title: Journal of Medical Internet Research

Publisher: JMIR Publications (Toronto, Canada )

ISSN (Print): 1439-4456

ISSN (Electronic): 1438-8871

Publication date Collection: June 2020

Publication date (Electronic): 30 June 2020

Publication date PMC-release: 30 June 2020

Volume: 22

Issue: 6

Electronic Location Identifier: e19636

Affiliations

[1 ] Henan Provincial Orthopedic Institute Zhengzhou China

[2 ] Ruijin Hospital Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine Shanghai China

[3 ] Henan Center for Disease Control and Prevention/Henan Key Laboratory of Pathogenic Microorganisms Zhengzhou China

[4 ] Wuxi School of Medicine Jiangnan University Wuxi China

Author notes

Corresponding Author: Xiaofeng Dai 1281423490@ 123456qq.com

Author information

Jitian Li https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9857-3226

Zhe Chen https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9721-5301

Yifei Nie https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5458-3801

Yan Ma https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1148-9572

Qiaoyun Guo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7457-6614

Xiaofeng Dai https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0006-4042

Article

Publisher ID: v22i6e19636

DOI: 10.2196/19636

PMC ID: 7332230

PubMed ID: 32544071

SO-VID: 65464cf3-ba83-46a8-aecf-082096fe8651

License:

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work, first published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research, is properly cited. The complete bibliographic information, a link to the original publication on http://www.jmir.org/, as well as this copyright and license information must be included.

History

Date received : 26 April 2020

Date revision requested : 6 June 2020

Date revision received : 14 June 2020

Date accepted : 15 June 2020

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