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      Use of Spatial Information to Predict Multidrug Resistance in Tuberculosis Patients, Peru

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          Abstract

          Knowing whether a patient has multidrug-resistant tuberculosis is crucial for prescribing the best treatment. The challenge is choosing the most effective drug with the fewest side effects while saving the “big guns” for the most resistant infections. The best way to find out whether a patient has this type of infection is to conduct drug-susceptibility testing. Unfortunately, this testing requires laboratory capabilities that are in short supply, so often only patients at high risk are tested. But who is at high risk? A recent study found an association between patients’ locations (health center at which they were seen) and likelihood of multidrug-resistant infection. Added to other known risk factors (young age, previous TB treatment, or contact with someone with similar infection), this information can further pinpoint who should be tested, which will ultimately lead to faster diagnoses, better treatments and less spread of multidrug-resistant TB.

          Abstract

          To determine whether spatiotemporal information could help predict multidrug resistance at the time of tuberculosis diagnosis, we investigated tuberculosis patients who underwent drug susceptibility testing in Lima, Peru, during 2005–2007. We found that crude representation of spatial location at the level of the health center improved prediction of multidrug resistance.

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          Risk factors for multidrug resistant tuberculosis in Europe: a systematic review.

          The resurgence of tuberculosis (TB) in western countries has been attributed to the HIV epidemic, immigration, and drug resistance. Multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is caused by the transmission of multidrug resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains in new cases, or by the selection of single drug resistant strains induced by previous treatment. The aim of this report is to determine risk factors for MDR-TB in Europe. A systematic review was conducted of published reports of risk factors associated with MDR-TB in Europe. Meta-analysis, meta-regression, and sub-grouping were used to pool risk estimates of MDR-TB and to analyse associations with age, sex, immigrant status, HIV status, occurrence year, study design, and area of Europe. Twenty nine papers were eligible for the review from 123 identified in the search. The pooled risk of MDR-TB was 10.23 times higher in previously treated than in never treated cases, with wide heterogeneity between studies. Study design and geographical area were associated with MDR-TB risk estimates in previously treated patients; the risk estimates were higher in cohort studies carried out in western Europe (RR 12.63; 95% CI 8.20 to 19.45) than in eastern Europe (RR 8.53; 95% CI 6.57 to 11.06). National estimates were possible for six countries. MDR-TB cases were more likely to be foreign born (odds ratio (OR) 2.46; 95% CI 1.86 to 3.24), younger than 65 years (OR 2.53; 95% CI 1.74 to 4.83), male (OR 1.38; 95% CI 1.16 to 1.65), and HIV positive (OR 3.52; 95% CI 2.48 to 5.01). Previous treatment was the strongest determinant of MDR-TB in Europe. Detailed study of the reasons for inadequate treatment could improve control strategies. The risk of MDR-TB in foreign born people needs to be re-evaluated, taking into account any previous treatment.
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            Tuberculosis transmission patterns in a high-incidence area: a spatial analysis.

            In the Cape Town suburbs of Ravensmead and Uitsig, tuberculosis has reached epidemic levels, with notifications of 1340/100,000 in 1996. These suburbs are characterised by overcrowding, high unemployment and poverty. It is traditionally believed that tuberculosis transmission takes place mainly in households after close contact with an infectious person. Studies have recently linked tuberculosis transmission to locations outside the household, and have associated these places with a particular high-risk lifestyle. Anthropological studies in some suburbs of Cape Town, in which a very high number of local drinking places (shebeens) were identified (17 per km2), have suggested that social drinking is part of such a lifestyle. To investigate various risk factors and places of transmission of tuberculosis using a geographical information system (GIS). The 1128 bacteriologically-proven cases of tuberculosis studied over the period 1993-1998 were investigated using spatial epidemiological techniques of exploratory disease mapping. Point pattern analysis and spatial statistics indicated clustering of cases in the areas of high incidence. Significant associations of tuberculosis notifications were found with unemployment, overcrowding and number of shebeens per enumerator sub-district. High tuberculosis notifications with unemployment and its associated poverty emerged as the strongest association.
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              Predictors of Multidrug- and Extensively Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis in a High HIV Prevalence Community

              Background Multidrug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis (TB) have emerged in high-HIV-prevalence settings, which generally lack laboratory infrastructure for diagnosing TB drug resistance. Even where available, inherent delays with current drug-susceptibility testing (DST) methods result in clinical deterioration and ongoing transmission of MDR and XDR-TB. Identifying clinical predictors of drug resistance may aid in risk stratification for earlier treatment and infection control. Methods We performed a retrospective case-control study of patients with MDR (cases), XDR (cases) and drug-susceptible (controls) TB in a high-HIV-prevalence setting in South Africa to identify clinical and demographic risk factors for drug-resistant TB. Controls were selected in a 1∶1∶1 ratio and were not matched. We calculated odds ratios (OR) and performed multivariate logistic regression to identify independent predictors. Results We enrolled 116, 123 and 139 patients with drug-susceptible, MDR, and XDR-TB. More than 85% in all three patient groups were HIV-infected. In multivariate analysis, MDR and XDR-TB were each strongly associated with history of TB treatment failure (adjusted OR 51.7 [CI 6.6-403.7] and 51.5 [CI 6.4–414.0], respectively) and hospitalization more than 14 days (aOR 3.8 [CI 1.1–13.3] and 6.1 [CI 1.8–21.0], respectively). Prior default from TB treatment was not a risk factor for MDR or XDR-TB. HIV was a risk factor for XDR (aOR 8.2, CI 1.3–52.6), but not MDR-TB. Comparing XDR with MDR-TB patients, the only significant risk factor for XDR-TB was HIV infection (aOR 5.3, CI 1.0–27.6). Discussion In this high-HIV-prevalence and drug-resistant TB setting, a history of prolonged hospitalization and previous TB treatment failure were strong risk factors for both MDR and XDR-TB. Given high mortality observed among patients with HIV and drug-resistant TB co-infection, previously treated and hospitalized patients should be considered for empiric second-line TB therapy while awaiting confirmatory DST results in settings with a high-burden of MDR/XDR-TB.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Emerg Infect Dis
                Emerging Infect. Dis
                EID
                Emerging Infectious Diseases
                Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
                1080-6040
                1080-6059
                May 2012
                : 18
                : 5
                : 811-813
                Affiliations
                [1]Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA (H.H. Lin, S.S. Shin, T. Cohen);
                [2]Mennonite Christian Hospital, Hualien, Taiwan (H.H. Lin);
                [3]National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan (H.H. Lin);
                [4]Partners In Health, Boston (S.S. Shin);
                [5]Socios En Salud Sucursal Peru, Lima, Peru (C. Contreras);
                [6]Instituto Nacional de Salud, Lima (L. Asencios);
                [7]Harvard School of Public Health, Boston (C.J. Paciorek, T. Cohen);
                [8]University of California, Berkeley, California, USA (C.J. Paciorek)
                Author notes
                Address for correspondence: Ted Cohen, 641 Huntington Avenue, Room 4A05, Boston, MA 02115, USA; email: tcohen@ 123456hsph.harvard.edu
                Article
                11-1467
                10.3201/eid1805.111467
                3358052
                22516236
                65d0ad3f-8b1c-4fa9-b160-53d521fcbaed
                History
                Categories
                Dispatch
                Dispatch

                Infectious disease & Microbiology
                drug susceptibility testing,peru,geographic information systems,lima,gis,antimicrobial resistance,multidrug resistance,mdr,multidrug-resistant,tb,dst,tuberculosis,tuberculosis and other mycobacteria

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