Objective: To predict the incident number of mumps in Changsha using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model.
Methods: We collected the data of incident number of mumps reported in Changsha from 2005 to 2015, then, with the data between 2005 and 2014 as the modeling data, and that in 2015 as the validation data, we built and validated a SARIMA model and used it to predict the incident number of mumps in Changsha in 2016.
Results: SARIMA (3,0,0)×(1,0,0) 12 model could well fit the actual data, the expansion of the model was: Yt=222.545+1.225Yt-1-0.713Yt-2+0.291Yt-3+0.366Yt-12-0.448Yt-13+0.261Yt-14-0.107Yt-15+at. The validation data and model prediction data were analyzed, and the results demonstrated that there was significant correlation between them (r=0.61, P<0.001). SARIMA model predicted that the incident number of mumps occurred in Changsha in the whole year of 2016 would reach 3 032, the average monthly incident number was 253.
Conclusion: SARIMA model can be used to predict the incident number of mumps. It predicted that the mumps outbreak might still show a trend of high incidence in Changsha in 2016.