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      The Influence of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones on Drought over the Eastern United States (1980–2007)

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          An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design

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            North American Regional Reanalysis

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              Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years.

              Theory and modelling predict that hurricane intensity should increase with increasing global mean temperatures, but work on the detection of trends in hurricane activity has focused mostly on their frequency and shows no trend. Here I define an index of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on the total dissipation of power, integrated over the lifetime of the cyclone, and show that this index has increased markedly since the mid-1970s. This trend is due to both longer storm lifetimes and greater storm intensities. I find that the record of net hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with tropical sea surface temperature, reflecting well-documented climate signals, including multi-decadal oscillations in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and global warming. My results suggest that future warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone destructive potential, and--taking into account an increasing coastal population--a substantial increase in hurricane-related losses in the twenty-first century.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal of Climate
                J. Climate
                American Meteorological Society
                0894-8755
                1520-0442
                May 2013
                May 2013
                : 26
                : 10
                : 3067-3086
                10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00244.1
                © 2013

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