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      World population stabilization unlikely this century.

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          Abstract

          The United Nations (UN) recently released population projections based on data until 2012 and a Bayesian probabilistic methodology. Analysis of these data reveals that, contrary to previous literature, the world population is unlikely to stop growing this century. There is an 80% probability that world population, now 7.2 billion people, will increase to between 9.6 billion and 12.3 billion in 2100. This uncertainty is much smaller than the range from the traditional UN high and low variants. Much of the increase is expected to happen in Africa, in part due to higher fertility rates and a recent slowdown in the pace of fertility decline. Also, the ratio of working-age people to older people is likely to decline substantially in all countries, even those that currently have young populations.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          Science
          Science (New York, N.Y.)
          American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
          1095-9203
          0036-8075
          Oct 10 2014
          : 346
          : 6206
          Affiliations
          [1 ] Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, New York, NY 10017, USA. gerland@un.org raftery@u.washington.edu.
          [2 ] Departments of Statistics and Sociology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-4322, USA. gerland@un.org raftery@u.washington.edu.
          [3 ] Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-4320, USA.
          [4 ] Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, New York, NY 10017, USA.
          [5 ] Department of Statistics and Applied Probability and Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117546.
          [6 ] Department of Statistics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1877, USA.
          [7 ] James Cook University Singapore, 600 Upper Thomson Road, Singapore 574421.
          [8 ] Institutional Research, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-9445, USA.
          [9 ] Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Center (CELADE), Population Division of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Santiago, Chile.
          [10 ] Population Division, United Nations, New York, NY, USA.
          Article
          science.1257469 NIHMS641095
          10.1126/science.1257469
          4230924
          25301627
          66dad1d5-13cf-483d-80a4-82949003b9a5
          Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
          History

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