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      Projecting potential impact of COVID-19 on major cereal crops in Senegal and Burkina Faso using crop simulation models

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          Abstract

          Context

          The rapid emergence of COVID-19 could have direct and indirect impacts on food production systems and livelihoods of farmers. From the farming perspective, disruption of critical input availability, supply chains and labor, influence crop management. Disruptions to food systems can affect (a) planting area; and (b) crop yields.

          Objectives

          To quantify the impacts of COVID-19 on major cereal crop's production and their cascading impact on national economy and related policies.

          Methods

          We used the calibrated crop simulation model (DSSAT suite) to project the impact of potential changes in planting area and grain yield of four major cereal crops (i.e., rice, maize, sorghum, and millet) in Senegal and Burkina Faso in terms of yield, total production, crop value and contribution to agricultural gross domestic product (GDP). Appropriate data (i.e., weather, soil, crop, and management practices) for the specific agroecological zones were used as an input in the model.

          Results and conclusions

          The simulated yields for 2020 were then used to estimate crop production at country scale for the matrix of different scenarios of planting area and yield change (−15, −10, −5, 0, +5, +10%). Depending on the scenario, changes in total production of four cereals combined at country levels varied from 1.47 M tons to 2.47 M tons in Senegal and 4.51 M tons to 7.52 M tons in Burkina Faso. The economic value of all four cereals under different scenarios ranged from $771 Million (M) to $1292 M in Senegal and from $1251 M to $2098 M in Burkina Faso. These estimated total crop values under different scenarios were compared with total agricultural GDP of the country (in 2019 terms which was $3995 M in Senegal and $3957 M in Burkina Faso) to assess the economic impact of the pandemic on major cereal grain production. Based on the scenarios, the impact on total agricultural GDP can change −7% to +6% in Senegal and − 8% to +9% in Burkina Faso.

          Significance

          Results obtained from this modeling exercise will be valuable to policymakers and end-to-end value chain practitioners to prepare and develop appropriate policies to cope or manage the impact of COVID-19 on food systems.

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          WorldClim 2: new 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas

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            Is Open Access

            COVID-19 infection: Origin, transmission, and characteristics of human coronaviruses

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              Some Comments on the Evaluation of Model Performance

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Agric Syst
                Agric Syst
                Agricultural Systems
                Elsevier Ltd.
                0308-521X
                0308-521X
                19 February 2021
                May 2021
                19 February 2021
                : 190
                : 103107
                Affiliations
                [a ]Sustainable Intensification Innovation Lab, Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas, USA
                [b ]Department of Agronomy, Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas, USA
                [c ]Senegalese Institute of Agricultural Research, Dakar, Senegal
                [d ]Institute of Environment and Agricultural Research, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
                Author notes
                [* ]Corresponding author at: Sustainable Intensification Innovation Lab, Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas, USA.
                Article
                S0308-521X(21)00060-3 103107
                10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103107
                7893291
                674fdc99-2ac4-48ea-95bf-6ff311370f09
                © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

                Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

                History
                : 17 November 2020
                : 4 February 2021
                : 9 February 2021
                Categories
                Article

                covid-19,supply chain,agriculture and economy,gdp,crop model,food security

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