Development of a new outcome prediction model for Chinese patients with penile squamous cell carcinoma based on preoperative serum C-reactive protein, body mass index, and standard pathological risk factors: the TNCB score group system

Abstract

Purpose

To determine the predictive value and feasibility of the new outcome prediction model for Chinese patients with penile squamous cell carcinoma.

Results

The 3-year disease-specific survival (DSS) was 92.3% in patients with < 8.70 mg/L CRP and 54.9% in those with elevated CRP ( P < 0.001). The 3-year DSS was 86.5% in patients with a BMI < 22.6 Kg/m2 and 69.9% in those with a higher BMI ( P = 0.025). In a multivariate analysis, pathological T stage ( P < 0.001), pathological N stage ( P = 0.002), BMI ( P = 0.002), and CRP ( P = 0.004) were independent predictors of DSS. A new scoring model was developed, consisting of BMI, CRP, and tumor T and N classification. In our study, we found that the addition of the above-mentioned parameters significantly increased the predictive accuracy of the system of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) anatomic stage group. The accuracy of the new prediction category was verified.

Methods

A total of 172 Chinese patients with penile squamous cell cancer were analyzed retrospectively between November 2005 and November 2014. Statistical data analysis was conducted using the nonparametric method. Survival analysis was performed with the log-rank test and the Cox proportional hazard model. Based on regression estimates of significant parameters in multivariate analysis, a new BMI-, CRP- and pathologic factors-based scoring model was developed to predict disease-specific outcomes. The predictive accuracy of the model was evaluated using the internal and external validation.

Conclusion

The present study demonstrated that the TNCB score group system maybe a precise and easy to use tool for predicting outcomes in Chinese penile squamous cell carcinoma patients.