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      Impact of recent and future climate change on vector‐borne diseases

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          Abstract

          Climate change is one of the greatest threats to human health in the 21st century. Climate directly impacts health through climatic extremes, air quality, sea‐level rise, and multifaceted influences on food production systems and water resources. Climate also affects infectious diseases, which have played a significant role in human history, impacting the rise and fall of civilizations and facilitating the conquest of new territories. Our review highlights significant regional changes in vector and pathogen distribution reported in temperate, peri‐Arctic, Arctic, and tropical highland regions during recent decades, changes that have been anticipated by scientists worldwide. Further future changes are likely if we fail to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Many key factors affect the spread and severity of human diseases, including mobility of people, animals, and goods; control measures in place; availability of effective drugs; quality of public health services; human behavior; and political stability and conflicts. With drug and insecticide resistance on the rise, significant funding and research efforts must to be maintained to continue the battle against existing and emerging diseases, particularly those that are vector borne.

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          Most cited references148

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          Impact of regional climate change on human health.

          The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30 years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.
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            Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations

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              Dengue, Urbanization and Globalization: The Unholy Trinity of the 21st Century

              Dengue is the most important arboviral disease of humans with over half of the world’s population living in areas of risk. The frequency and magnitude of epidemic dengue have increased dramatically in the past 40 years as the viruses and the mosquito vectors have both expanded geographically in the tropical regions of the world. There are many factors that have contributed to this emergence of epidemic dengue, but only three have been the principal drivers: 1) urbanization, 2) globalization and 3) lack of effective mosquito control. The dengue viruses have fully adapted to a human-Aedes aegypti-human transmission cycle, in the large urban centers of the tropics, where crowded human populations live in intimate association with equally large mosquito populations. This setting provides the ideal home for maintenance of the viruses and the periodic generation of epidemic strains. These cities all have modern airports through which 10s of millions of passengers pass each year, providing the ideal mechanism for transportation of viruses to new cities, regions and continents where there is little or no effective mosquito control. The result is epidemic dengue. This paper discusses this unholy trinity of drivers, along with disease burden, prevention and control and prospects for the future.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Cyril.Caminade@liverpool.ac.uk
                Journal
                Ann N Y Acad Sci
                Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci
                10.1111/(ISSN)1749-6632
                NYAS
                Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
                John Wiley and Sons Inc. (Hoboken )
                0077-8923
                1749-6632
                18 August 2018
                January 2019
                : 1436
                : 1 , Climate Sciences ( doiID: 10.1111/nyas.2019.1436.issue-1 )
                : 157-173
                Affiliations
                [ 1 ] Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Institute of Infection and Global Health University of Liverpool Liverpool UK
                [ 2 ] NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections Liverpool UK
                [ 3 ] Department of Mathematical Sciences University of Liverpool Liverpool UK
                Author notes
                [*] [* ]Address for correspondence: Cyril Caminade, Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Institute of Infection and Global Health, Horn Office, LUCINDA Group, Liverpool Science Park IC2 Building, 146 Brownlow Hill, Liverpool L3 5RF, UK. Cyril.Caminade@ 123456liverpool.ac.uk
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3846-7082
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1360-122X
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1273-5533
                Article
                NYAS13950
                10.1111/nyas.13950
                6378404
                30120891
                676dc7ff-36bc-40a1-8625-4b2d2ac92d3c
                © 2018 The Authors. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of New York Academy of Sciences.

                This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                History
                : 04 May 2018
                : 12 July 2018
                : 17 July 2018
                Page count
                Figures: 0, Tables: 0, Pages: 17, Words: 12282
                Funding
                Funded by: National Institute for Health Research
                Funded by: National Health Service
                Categories
                Microbiology
                Public Health
                Climate Sciences
                Review
                Reviews
                Custom metadata
                2.0
                nyas13950
                January 2019
                Converter:WILEY_ML3GV2_TO_NLMPMC version:5.5.9 mode:remove_FC converted:18.02.2019

                Uncategorized
                climate change,vector‐borne disease,water‐borne disease,public health,emerging disease

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