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      Relevant factors for the voting decision in the 2002 presidential election: an analysis of the ESEB (Brazilian electoral study) data

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          Abstract

          The article investigates some of the most relevant factors for the voting decision in the 2002 presidential election by testing some of the main hypotheses about electoral behaviour in the country by means of logistic regression analyses based on data from the ESEB (Brazilian Electoral Study), a post-electoral survey conducted on a national sample of voters. In the models, taken as a whole, political opinions did not have much weight in the voting decision. Furthermore, they are unable to "explain" a very large share of voters' positioning on a left-right scale or on a scale of voters' "party sentiments". All these "political" variables taken as a whole, in turn, "explain" only part of the evaluations that voters make of the government's performance. The analysis shows that Brazilian voters' voting decision seems rather varied, since some variables were shown to be relevant to "explain" the vote for a candidate, but not for the others. The variables shown to be more frequent (for all four candidates analysed) and with more considerable weight were: voters' religion, their "party sentiments", their positioning on a left-right scale, the evaluations made of the then current government (in actual fact important only for the vote for Serra, the government's candidate) and the candidates' attributes (especially "reliability" and "preparedness/competence").

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          Most cited references44

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          An Economic Theory of Democracy

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            The Two Faces of Issue Voting

            Both implicit democratic norms and the reconstructions provided by theorists of rational choice suggest that issue voters are more sophisticated–educated, informed, and active in politics–than other voters. But some issues are clearly more difficult than others, and the voters who respond to “hard” and “easy” issues, respectively, are assumed to differ in kind. We propose the hypothesis that “easy-issue” voters are no more sophisticated than non-issue voters, and this is found to be the case. The findings suggest a reevaluation of the import of rising and falling levels of issue voting and suggest a prominent role for “easy” issues in electoral realignments.
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              Retrospective voting in American national elections

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ND
                Journal
                s_bpsr
                Brazilian Political Science Review (Online)
                Braz. political sci. rev. (Online)
                Associação Brasileira de Ciência Política (Rio de Janeiro )
                1981-3821
                2007
                : 1
                : se
                : 0
                Article
                S1981-38212007000100005
                10.1590/s1981-38212007000100005
                67b8d177-28eb-401d-83ef-e7ef6390b4cc

                http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

                History
                Product

                SciELO Social Sciences

                Self URI (journal page): http://socialsciences.scielo.org/scielo.php?script=sci_serial&pid=1981-3821&lng=en

                Brazilian politics,presidential elections,electoral behaviour

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