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      Heterogeneity of the HIV epidemic: an observational epidemiologic study of agrarian, trading, and fishing communities in Rakai, Uganda

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          Summary

          Background

          Understanding the extent to which HIV burden differs across communities and the drivers of local disparities is critical for an effective and targeted HIV response. We assessed community-level variations in HIV prevalence, risk factors, and treatment and prevention service uptake in Rakai, Uganda.

          Methods

          The Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) is an open, population-based cohort surveying persons aged 15–49 in 40 communities. Participants are HIV tested and interviewed to obtain sociodemographic, behavioral, and health information. RCCS data from August 2011 to May 2013 were used to classify communities as agrarian (n=27), trading (n=9), or lakeside fishing sites (n=4). HIV prevalence was mapped using Bayesian methods, and variability across and within community classifications was characterized. Differences in HIV risk factors and uptake of antiretroviral therapy and male circumcision between community types were assessed.

          Findings

          17,119 individuals were included; 9215 (54%) were female. 9931 participants resided in agrarian, 3318 in trading, and 3870 in fishing communities. There was large variation in HIV prevalence, ranging from 9% to 43% across communities. Fishing communities had a higher median HIV prevalence (41%, range: 37–43%) compared to trading (17%, range: 11–22%) and agrarian communities (14%, range: 9–26%); ART and male circumcision coverage were significantly lower in fishing communities. Self-reported risk behaviors were significantly higher in men compared to women and in fishing communities compared to other community types.

          Interpretation

          There is substantial heterogeneity in HIV prevalence, risk factors, and service uptake across communities within one region of Uganda. These findings underscore the need for local surveillance and have important implications for the design of targeted HIV responses. In particular, the extremely high HIV burden and risk behaviors, and low use of combination HIV prevention in fishing communities make these areas a priority for intervention.

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          Most cited references21

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          A comparison of conditional autoregressive models used in Bayesian disease mapping.

          Duncan Lee (2011)
          Disease mapping is the area of epidemiology that estimates the spatial pattern in disease risk over an extended geographical region, so that areas with elevated risk levels can be identified. Bayesian hierarchical models are typically used in this context, which represent the risk surface using a combination of available covariate data and a set of spatial random effects. These random effects are included to model any overdispersion or spatial correlation in the disease data, that has not been accounted for by the available covariate information. The random effects are typically modelled by a conditional autoregressive (CAR) prior distribution, and a number of alternative specifications have been proposed. This paper critiques four of the most common models within the CAR class, and assesses their appropriateness via a simulation study. The four models are then applied to a new study mapping cancer incidence in Greater Glasgow, Scotland, between 2001 and 2005. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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            Control of sexually transmitted diseases for AIDS prevention in Uganda: a randomised community trial. Rakai Project Study Group.

            The study tested the hypothesis that community-level control of sexually transmitted disease (STD) would result in lower incidence of HIV-1 infection in comparison with control communities. This randomised, controlled, single-masked, community-based trial of intensive STD control, via home-based mass antibiotic treatment, took place in Rakai District, Uganda. Ten community clusters were randomly assigned to intervention or control groups. All consenting residents aged 15-59 years were enrolled; visited in the home every 10 months; interviewed; asked to provide biological samples for assessment of HIV-1 infection and STDs; and were provided with mass treatment (azithromycin, ciprofloxacin, metronidazole in the intervention group, vitamins/anthelmintic drug in the control). Intention-to-treat analyses used multivariate, paired, cluster-adjusted rate ratios. The baseline prevalence of HIV-1 infection was 15.9%. 6602 HIV-1-negative individuals were enrolled in the intervention group and 6124 in the control group. 75.0% of intervention-group and 72.6% of control-group participants provided at least one follow-up sample for HIV-1 testing. At enrolment, the two treatment groups were similar in STD prevalence rates. At 20-month follow-up, the prevalences of syphilis (352/6238 [5.6%]) vs 359/5284 [6.8%]; rate ratio 0.80 [95% CI 0.71-0.89]) and trichomoniasis (182/1968 [9.3%] vs 261/1815 [14.4%]; rate ratio 0.59 [0.38-0.91]) were significantly lower in the intervention group than in the control group. The incidence of HIV-1 infection was 1.5 per 100 person-years in both groups (rate ratio 0.97 [0.81-1.16]). In pregnant women, the follow-up prevalences of trichomoniasis, bacterial vaginosis, gonorrhoea, and chlamydia infection were significantly lower in the intervention group than in the control group. No effect of the intervention on incidence of HIV-1 infection was observed in pregnant women or in stratified analyses. We observed no effect of the STD intervention on the incidence of HIV-1 infection. In the Rakai population, a substantial proportion of HIV-1 acquisition appears to occur independently of treatable STD cofactors.
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              Uganda Demographic and Health Survey 2011

              (2012)
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                101645355
                43213
                Lancet HIV
                Lancet HIV
                The lancet. HIV
                2405-4704
                2352-3018
                19 July 2016
                09 July 2016
                August 2016
                01 August 2017
                : 3
                : 8
                : e388-e396
                Affiliations
                Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
                Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda
                Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
                Social and Behavioral Interventions Program, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
                Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda
                Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
                Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda
                Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda
                Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda
                Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda
                Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
                Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
                Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
                Laboratory of Immunoregulation, Division of Intramural Research, National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
                Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
                Laboratory of Immunoregulation, Division of Intramural Research, National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
                Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda
                Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
                Makerere University School of Public Health, Kampala, Uganda
                Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda
                Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda
                Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
                Author notes
                Correspondence to: Larry William Chang, MD, MPH, Division of Infectious Diseases, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, 725 N. Wolfe St., Suite 216, Baltimore, Maryland 21205, USA. lchang8@ 123456jhmi.edu
                [*]

                Contributed equally

                Article
                NIHMS803632
                10.1016/S2352-3018(16)30034-0
                4973864
                27470029
                67bc94a6-15db-40b8-a5a0-9ad6dba30a23

                This manuscript version is made available under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license.

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