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Abstract
A comprehensive literature review identifies 1415 species of infectious organism known
to be pathogenic to humans, including 217 viruses and prions, 538 bacteria and rickettsia,
307 fungi, 66 protozoa and 287 helminths. Out of these, 868 (61%) are zoonotic, that
is, they can be transmitted between humans and animals, and 175 pathogenic species
are associated with diseases considered to be 'emerging'. We test the hypothesis that
zoonotic pathogens are more likely to be associated with emerging diseases than non-emerging
ones. Out of the emerging pathogens, 132 (75%) are zoonotic, and overall, zoonotic
pathogens are twice as likely to be associated with emerging diseases than non-zoonotic
pathogens. However, the result varies among taxa, with protozoa and viruses particularly
likely to emerge, and helminths particularly unlikely to do so, irrespective of their
zoonotic status. No association between transmission route and emergence was found.
This study represents the first quantitative analysis identifying risk factors for
human disease emergence.