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      Study of Global Dynamics of COVID-19 Via a New Mathematical Model

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          Abstract

          The theme of this paper focuses on the mathematical modeling and transmission mechanism of the new Coronavirus shortly noted as (COVID-19), endangering the lives of people and causing a great menace to the world recently. We used a new type epidemic model composed on four compartments that is susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered (SEIR), which describes the dynamics of COVID-19 under convex incidence rate. We simulate the results by using nonstandard finite difference method (NSFDS) which is a powerful numerical tool. We describe the new model on some random data and then by the available data of a particular regions of Subcontinents.

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          Most cited references 24

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          Is Open Access

          Analysis of fractal fractional differential equations

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            Can transfer function and Bode diagram be obtained from Sumudu transform

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              Modelling strategies for controlling SARS outbreaks.

              Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), a new, highly contagious, viral disease, emerged in China late in 2002 and quickly spread to 32 countries and regions causing in excess of 774 deaths and 8098 infections worldwide. In the absence of a rapid diagnostic test, therapy or vaccine, isolation of individuals diagnosed with SARS and quarantine of individuals feared exposed to SARS virus were used to control the spread of infection. We examine mathematically the impact of isolation and quarantine on the control of SARS during the outbreaks in Toronto, Hong Kong, Singapore and Beijing using a deterministic model that closely mimics the data for cumulative infected cases and SARS-related deaths in the first three regions but not in Beijing until mid-April, when China started to report data more accurately. The results reveal that achieving a reduction in the contact rate between susceptible and diseased individuals by isolating the latter is a critically important strategy that can control SARS outbreaks with or without quarantine. An optimal isolation programme entails timely implementation under stringent hygienic precautions defined by a critical threshold value. Values below this threshold lead to control, but those above are associated with the incidence of new community outbreaks or nosocomial infections, a known cause for the spread of SARS in each region. Allocation of resources to implement optimal isolation is more effective than to implement sub-optimal isolation and quarantine together. A community-wide eradication of SARS is feasible if optimal isolation is combined with a highly effective screening programme at the points of entry.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Results Phys
                Results Phys
                Results in Physics
                The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V.
                2211-3797
                15 October 2020
                15 October 2020
                Affiliations
                [a ]Department of Mathematics, University of Malakand, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
                [b ]Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Taibah University, Medina, Saudi Arabia
                [c ]Department of Mathematics, Cankaya University, Ankara, Turkey
                [d ]Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospital, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
                [e ]Institute of Space Sciences, 077125 Magurele, Romania
                Author notes
                [* ]Corresponding author.
                Article
                S2211-3797(20)31926-4 103468
                10.1016/j.rinp.2020.103468
                7557201
                © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V.

                Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

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