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      Total solar irradiance satellite composites and their phenomenological effect on climate

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          Abstract

          Herein I discuss and propose updated satellite composites of the total solar irradiance covering the period 1978-2008. The composites are compiled from measurements made with the three ACRIM experiments. Measurements from the NIMBUS7/ERB and the ERBS/ERBE satellite experiments are used to fill the gap from June 1989 to October 1991 between ACRIM1 and ACRIM2 experiments. The climate implications of the alternative satellite composites are discussed by using a phenomenological climate model for reconstructing the total solar irradiance signature on climate during the last four centuries.

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          Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years

          Crowley (2000)
          Recent reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperatures and climate forcing over the past 1000 years allow the warming of the 20th century to be placed within a historical context and various mechanisms of climate change to be tested. Comparisons of observations with simulations from an energy balance climate model indicate that as much as 41 to 64% of preanthropogenic (pre-1850) decadal-scale temperature variations was due to changes in solar irradiance and volcanism. Removal of the forced response from reconstructed temperature time series yields residuals that show similar variability to those of control runs of coupled models, thereby lending support to the models' value as estimates of low-frequency variability in the climate system. Removal of all forcing except greenhouse gases from the approximately 1000-year time series results in a residual with a very large late-20th-century warming that closely agrees with the response predicted from greenhouse gas forcing. The combination of a unique level of temperature increase in the late 20th century and improved constraints on the role of natural variability provides further evidence that the greenhouse effect has already established itself above the level of natural variability in the climate system. A 21st-century global warming projection far exceeds the natural variability of the past 1000 years and is greater than the best estimate of global temperature change for the last interglacial.
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            Energy balance climate models

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              Variations in total solar irradiance during solar cycle 22

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                06 August 2009
                Article
                0908.0792
                69181f79-0a1e-4dad-a83e-fa80c4b88e39

                http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

                History
                Custom metadata
                This paper has been presented at the 2007 GSA Denver Annual Meeting(28 - 31 October 2007). Session n. 187: The Cause of Global Warming. Are We Facing Global Catastrophe in the Coming Century?, Colorado Convention Center: 605/607 8:00 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday, 31 October 2007. In press on a special GSA volume dedicated to the conference session
                astro-ph.SR astro-ph.EP physics.space-ph

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