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      Impoundment of the Zipingpu reservoir and triggering of the 2008 M w 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake, China

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          Abstract

          Impoundment of the Zipingpu reservoir (ZR), China, began in September 2005 and was followed 2.7 years later by the 2008 M w 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake (WE) rupturing the Longmen Shan Fault (LSF), with its epicenter ~12 km away from the ZR. Based on the poroelastic theory, we employ three‐dimensional finite element models to simulate the evolution of stress and pore pressure due to reservoir impoundment, and its effect on the Coulomb failure stress on the LSF. The results indicate that the reservoir impoundment formed a pore pressure front that slowly propagated through the crust with fluid diffusion. The reservoir loading induced either moderate or no increase of the Coulomb failure stress at the hypocenter prior to the WE. The Coulomb failure stress, however, grew ~9.3–69.1 kPa in the depth range of 1–8 km on the LSF, which may have advanced tectonic loading of the fault system by ~60–450 years. Due to uncertainties of fault geometry and hypocenter location of the WE, it is inconclusive whether impoundment of the ZR directly triggered the WE. However, a small event at the hypocenter could have triggered large rupture elsewhere on fault, where the asperities were weakened by the ZR. The microseismicity around the ZR also showed an expanding pattern from the ZR since its impoundment, likely associated with diffusion of a positive pore pressure pulse. These results suggest a poroelastic triggering effect (even if indirectly) of the WE due to the impoundment of the ZR.

          Key Points

          • Reservoir loading caused significant CFS increase at shallow‐middle depth

          • Seismicity around reservoir showed progressive spatial expansion due to pore pressure diffusion

          • Wenchuan earthquake was likely triggered indirectly by reservoir impoundment

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          Earth tides can trigger shallow thrust fault earthquakes.

          We show a correlation between the occurrence of shallow thrust earthquakes and the occurrence of the strongest tides. The rate of earthquakes varies from the background rate by a factor of 3 with the tidal stress. The highest correlation is found when we assume a coefficient of friction of mu = 0.4 for the crust, although we see good correlation for mu between 0.2 and 0.6. Our results quantify the effect of applied stress on earthquake triggering, a key factor in understanding earthquake nucleation and cascades whereby one earthquake triggers others.
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            Seismology. A human trigger for the great quake of Sichuan?

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              Author and article information

              Journal
              J Geophys Res Solid Earth
              J Geophys Res Solid Earth
              10.1002/(ISSN)2169-9356
              JGRB
              Journal of Geophysical Research. Solid Earth
              John Wiley and Sons Inc. (Hoboken )
              2169-9313
              2169-9356
              October 2015
              21 October 2015
              : 120
              : 10 ( doiID: 10.1002/jgrb.v120.10 )
              : 7033-7047
              Affiliations
              [ 1 ] State Key Laboratory of Earthquake DynamicsInstitute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration BeijingChina
              [ 2 ] Department of Geology and Geological EngineeringSouth Dakota School of Mines and Technology Rapid City South DakotaUSA
              [ 3 ] Department of Earth, Planetary, and Space SciencesUniversity of California Los Angeles CaliforniaUSA
              [ 4 ] Department of Geophysics, School of Earth and Space SciencePeking University BeijingChina
              [ 5 ]Institute of Earth Sciences Jaume Almera, Spanish National Research Council (Consejo Superior de Invees Científicas) BarcelonaSpain
              Author notes
              [*] [* ] Correspondence to: Z.‐K. Shen,

              zshen@ 123456ucla.edu

              Article
              JGRB51313 2014JB011766
              10.1002/2014JB011766
              5066322
              699f5fcb-4060-41c1-84c0-fa24c5106dcf
              ©2015. The Authors.

              This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial‐NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

              History
              : 11 November 2014
              : 01 June 2015
              : 13 September 2015
              Page count
              Pages: 15
              Funding
              Funded by: NSFC
              Award ID: 41090294
              Award ID: 41374103
              Funded by: CEA
              Award ID: LED2008A05
              Award ID: LED2013A04
              Award ID: LED2009A02
              Funded by: NSF
              Award ID: EAR 0911762
              Award ID: EAR 0911466
              Funded by: NASA
              Award ID: ESI 1468758
              Funded by: NSF I/RD
              Award ID: EAR‐1323052
              Categories
              Seismology
              Geodesy and Gravity
              Time Variable Gravity
              Seismic Cycle Related Deformations
              Hydrology
              Reservoirs (Surface)
              Hydrogeophysics
              Natural Hazards
              Monitoring, Forecasting, Prediction
              Seismology
              Earthquake Interaction, Forecasting, and Prediction
              Structural Geology
              Dynamics and Mechanics of Faulting
              Tectonophysics
              Stresses: Crust and Lithosphere
              Dynamics and Mechanics of Faulting
              Research Article
              Research Articles
              Seismology
              Custom metadata
              2.0
              jgrb51313
              October 2015
              Converter:WILEY_ML3GV2_TO_NLMPMC version:4.9.4 mode:remove_FC converted:12.10.2016

              zipingpu reservoir,fully coupled poroelasticity,wenchuan earthquake,stress triggering,finite element model

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