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      Cancer incidence in the United Kingdom: projections to the year 2030

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          Abstract

          Background:

          Projections of cancer incidence are important for planning health services and to provide a baseline for assessing the impact of public health interventions.

          Methods:

          Rates estimated from smooth function age–period–cohort modelling of cancer incidence data from Great Britain 1975 to 2007 are extrapolated to 2030 and applied to UK population projections. Prostate and breast cancer projections take into account the effect of screening.

          Results:

          Overall rates of cancer are projected to be stable over the next 20 years, but this masks individual changes. In both sexes, age-standardised rates of cancers of the stomach, larynx, bladder and leukaemia are projected to fall by ⩾1% per year, whereas cancers of the lip, mouth and pharynx (ICD-10 C00-C14) and melanoma are projected to increase by ⩾1% per year. The growing and aging populations will have a substantial impact: numbers of cancers in men and women are projected to increase by 55% (from 149 169 to 231 026) and 35% (from 148 716 to 200 929), respectively, between 2007 and 2030. The model used yields similar results to those of Nordpred, but is more flexible.

          Conclusion:

          Without new initiatives for smoking and obesity reduction, the number of cancers in the United Kingdom will increase substantially reflecting the growing and aging populations.

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          Most cited references8

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          Age-period-cohort models for the Lexis diagram.

          B Carstensen (2007)
          Analysis of rates from disease registers are often reported inadequately because of too coarse tabulation of data and because of confusion about the mechanics of the age-period-cohort model used for analysis. Rates should be considered as observations in a Lexis diagram, and tabulation a necessary reduction of data, which should be as small as possible, and age, period and cohort should be treated as continuous variables. Reporting should include the absolute level of the rates as part of the age-effects. This paper gives a guide to analysis of rates from a Lexis diagram by the age-period-cohort model. Three aspects are considered separately: (1) tabulation of cases and person-years; (2) modelling of age, period and cohort effects; and (3) parametrization and reporting of the estimated effects. It is argued that most of the confusion in the literature comes from failure to make a clear distinction between these three aspects. A set of recommendations for the practitioner is given and a package for R that implements the recommendations is introduced. Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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            Effect of screening on cervical cancer mortality in England and Wales: analysis of trends with an age period cohort model.

            P Sasieni, John W Adams (1999)
            Article 0 comments Cited 30 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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              Rising incidence of prostate cancer in Scotland: increased risk or increased detection?

              Cara K Fraser, Jamie Harris, Colin Black … (2000)
              To assess the extent to which the increasing incidence of prostate cancer in Scotland can be explained by increased detection, particularly through transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP) and use of the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test. Subjects and methods This population-based study was confined to men resident in Scotland and aged > or =50 years. Temporal trends were examined in age-specific and age-standardized incidence, mortality and TURP rates, and PSA testing rates during 1981-1996. Also analysed were the geographical variations in age-standardized incidence and mortality rates during two distinct periods, 1984-1986 (before PSA testing) and 1994-1996 (after PSA testing). Finally, incidence rates and relative survival at 5 years were calculated by age group and 5-year periods of diagnosis during 1968-1992. The incidence of prostate cancer in men aged > or = 50 years increased from an age-standardized rate of 142.0 per 100 000 in 1981 to 240.9 in 1996, with the steepest increase occurring between 1992 and 1993. The mortality rate increased similarly until 1993, but was relatively stable thereafter, falling slightly in 1996. In 1981-1988, incidence rates were closely correlated with TURP rates (r = 0.98, P<0.001). In 1989-1996, incidence was closely correlated with PSA testing rates (r = 0.98, P<0.001). By 1994-1996, incidence rates varied substantially between Scottish mainland health boards (range 167.7-303.0 per 100 000), with much less variation in mortality rates (90.7-110.0). Relative survival has increased recently in all age groups although, in the era before PSA testing, survival was reasonably stable despite increasing incidence. Although there may have been a true increase in risk, much of the observed increase in the incidence of prostate cancer in Scotland between 1981 and 1996 has been caused by increased detection, leading recently to considerable variation among different areas of the country. The extent to which this represents the early diagnosis of tumours which would eventually cause symptoms or be life-threatening, or detection of latent disease which would never have become symptomatic, is not clear. There is no evidence so far that the increased incidence is associated with any substantial reduction in mortality.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): Br J Cancer
                Title: British Journal of Cancer
                Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
                ISSN (Print): 0007-0920
                ISSN (Electronic): 1532-1827
                Publication date (Print): 22 November 2011
                Publication date (Electronic): 27 October 2011
                Publication date PMC-release: 22 November 2011
                Volume: 105
                Issue: 11
                Pages: 1795-1803
                Affiliations
                [1 ]simpleCentre for Cancer Prevention, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Barts & The London School of Medicine & Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London , Charterhouse Square, London EC1M 6BQ, UK
                Author notes
                Article
                Publisher Item ID: bjc2011430
                DOI: 10.1038/bjc.2011.430
                PMC ID: 3242594
                PubMed ID: 22033277
                SO-VID: 6a464d05-0fdc-4a49-be23-d3d3ad93c75a
                Copyright © Copyright © 2011 Cancer Research UK
                License:

                This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/

                History
                Date received : 21 June 2011
                Date revision received : 12 September 2011
                Date accepted : 16 September 2011
                Categories
                Subject: Epidemiology

                ScienceOpen disciplines: Oncology & Radiotherapy
                Keywords: projections,splines,cancer registration,age–period–cohort models,incidence
                Data availability:
                ScienceOpen disciplines: Oncology & Radiotherapy
                Keywords: projections, splines, cancer registration, age–period–cohort models, incidence

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