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      Increasing trends in regional heatwaves

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          Abstract

          Heatwaves have increased in intensity, frequency and duration, with these trends projected to worsen under enhanced global warming. Understanding regional heatwave trends has critical implications for the biophysical and human systems they impact. Until now a comprehensive assessment of regional observed changes was hindered by the range of metrics employed, underpinning datasets, and time periods examined. Here, using the Berkeley Earth temperature dataset and key heatwave metrics, we systematically examine regional and global observed heatwave trends. In almost all regions, heatwave frequency demonstrates the most rapid and significant change. A measure of cumulative heat shows significant increases almost everywhere since the 1950s, mainly driven by heatwave days. Trends in heatwave frequency, duration and cumulative heat have accelerated since the 1950s, and due to the high influence of variability we recommend regional trends are assessed over multiple decades. Our results provide comparable regional observed heatwave trends, on spatial and temporal scales necessary for understanding impacts.

          Abstract

          Heatwaves are expected to become more frequent and more intense under global warming, but how these trends differ on a regional scale is not well known. Here, the authors provide a comprehensive assessment of regional changes and show that most heat indicaters have increased since the 1950s.

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          Global scale climate–crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming

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            Consistent geographical patterns of changes in high-impact European heatwaves

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              On the Measurement of Heat Waves

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Sarah.Kirkpatrick@unsw.edu.au
                Journal
                Nat Commun
                Nat Commun
                Nature Communications
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                2041-1723
                3 July 2020
                3 July 2020
                2020
                : 11
                : 3357
                Affiliations
                [1 ]ISNI 0000 0004 4902 0432, GRID grid.1005.4, Climate Change Research Centre, , UNSW Sydney, ; Sydney, NSW Australia
                [2 ]School of Science, UNSW Canberra, Canberra, ACT Australia
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9443-4915
                Article
                16970
                10.1038/s41467-020-16970-7
                7334217
                32620857
                6ab8b66c-852c-49f0-b6a3-765eaf4874bb
                © The Author(s) 2020

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                : 9 December 2018
                : 2 June 2020
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                © The Author(s) 2020

                Uncategorized
                climate change,climate-change impacts,projection and prediction
                Uncategorized
                climate change, climate-change impacts, projection and prediction

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