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      Defining Challenges and Proposing Solutions for Control of the Virus Vector Aedes aegypti

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          Abstract

          If done properly, say the authors, Aedes aegypti suppression is a practical method to control urban dengue, yellow fever, and chikungunya viruses.

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          Most cited references 44

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          Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence.

          Population-level analyses often use average quantities to describe heterogeneous systems, particularly when variation does not arise from identifiable groups. A prominent example, central to our current understanding of epidemic spread, is the basic reproductive number, R(0), which is defined as the mean number of infections caused by an infected individual in a susceptible population. Population estimates of R(0) can obscure considerable individual variation in infectiousness, as highlighted during the global emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) by numerous 'superspreading events' in which certain individuals infected unusually large numbers of secondary cases. For diseases transmitted by non-sexual direct contacts, such as SARS or smallpox, individual variation is difficult to measure empirically, and thus its importance for outbreak dynamics has been unclear. Here we present an integrated theoretical and statistical analysis of the influence of individual variation in infectiousness on disease emergence. Using contact tracing data from eight directly transmitted diseases, we show that the distribution of individual infectiousness around R(0) is often highly skewed. Model predictions accounting for this variation differ sharply from average-based approaches, with disease extinction more likely and outbreaks rarer but more explosive. Using these models, we explore implications for outbreak control, showing that individual-specific control measures outperform population-wide measures. Moreover, the dramatic improvements achieved through targeted control policies emphasize the need to identify predictive correlates of higher infectiousness. Our findings indicate that superspreading is a normal feature of disease spread, and to frame ongoing discussion we propose a rigorous definition for superspreading events and a method to predict their frequency.
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            Epidemic dengue/dengue hemorrhagic fever as a public health, social and economic problem in the 21st century

            Dengue fever/dengue hemorrhagic fever is now one of the most important public health problems in tropical developing countries and also has major economic and societal consequences.
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              A simulation model of the epidemiology of urban dengue fever: literature analysis, model development, preliminary validation, and samples of simulation results.

              We have developed a pair of stochastic simulation models that describe the daily dynamics of dengue virus transmission in the urban environment. Our goal has been to construct comprehensive models that take into account the majority of factors known to influence dengue epidemiology. The models have an orientation toward site-specific data and are designed to be used by operational programs as well as researchers. The first model, the container-inhabiting mosquito simulation model (CIMSiM), a weather-driven dynamic life-table model of container-inhabiting mosquitoes such as Aedes aegypti, provides inputs to the tranmission model, the dengue simulation model (DENSiM); a description and validation of the entomology model was published previously. The basis of the transmission model is the simulation of a human population growing in response to country- and age-specific birth and death rates. An accounting of individual serologies is maintained by type of dengue virus, reflecting infection and birth to seropositive mothers. Daily estimates of adult mosquito survival, gonotrophic development, and the weight and number of emerging females from the CIMSiM are used to create the biting mosquito population in the DENSiM. The survival and emergence values determine the size of the population while the rate of gonotrophic development and female weight estimates influence biting frequency. Temperature and titer of virus in the human influences the extrinsic incubation period; titer may also influence the probability of transfer of virus from human to mosquito. The infection model within the DENSiM accounts for the development of virus within individuals and its passage between both populations. As in the case of the CIMSiM, the specific values used for any particular phenomenon are on menus where they can be readily changed. It is possible to simulate concurrent epidemics involving different serotypes. To provide a modicum of validation and to demonstrate the parameterization process for a specific location, we compare simulation results with reports on the nature of epidemics and seroprevalence of antibody in Honduras in low-lying coastal urbanizations and Tegucigalpa following the initial introduction of dengue-1 in 1978 into Central America. We conclude with some additional examples of simulation results to give an indication of the types of questions that can be investigated with the models.
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                Author and article information

                Author notes
                * To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: twscott@ 123456ucdavis.edu
                Journal
                PLoS Med
                pmed
                plme
                plosmed
                PLoS Medicine
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, USA )
                1549-1277
                1549-1676
                March 2008
                18 March 2008
                : 5
                : 3
                2267811
                18351798
                10.1371/journal.pmed.0050068
                07-PLME-PF-2051R1
                Copyright: © 2008 Morrison et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
                Counts
                Pages: 5
                Categories
                Policy Forum
                Infectious Diseases
                Public Health and Epidemiology
                Virology
                Infectious Diseases
                Microbiology
                Medicine in Developing Countries
                Public Health
                Health Education (Including Prevention and Promotion)
                Custom metadata
                Morrison AC, Zielinski-Gutierrez E, Scott TW, Rosenberg R (2008) Defining challenges and proposing solutions for control of the virus vector Aedes aegypti. PLoS Med 5(3): e68. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0050068

                Medicine

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