A new methodology for weighting high-resolution model simulations to project future rainfall in the Middle East

The control of epidemic malaria is a priority for the international health community and specific targets for the early detection and effective control of epidemics have been agreed. Interannual climate variability is an important determinant of epidemics in parts of Africa where climate drives both mosquito vector dynamics and parasite development rates. Hence, skilful seasonal climate forecasts may provide early warning of changes of risk in epidemic-prone regions. Here we discuss the development of a system to forecast probabilities of anomalously high and low malaria incidence with dynamically based, seasonal-timescale, multi-model ensemble predictions of climate, using leading global coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models developed in Europe. This forecast system is successfully applied to the prediction of malaria risk in Botswana, where links between malaria and climate variability are well established, adding up to four months lead time over malaria warnings issued with observed precipitation and having a comparably high level of probabilistic prediction skill. In years in which the forecast probability distribution is different from that of climatology, malaria decision-makers can use this information for improved resource allocation.

For comparison of whole-genome (genic + nongenic) sequences, multiple sequence alignment of a few selected genes is not appropriate. One approach is to use an alignment-free method in which feature (or l-mer) frequency profiles (FFP) of whole genomes are used for comparison-a variation of a text or book comparison method, using word frequency profiles. In this approach it is critical to identify the optimal resolution range of l-mers for the given set of genomes compared. The optimum FFP method is applicable for comparing whole genomes or large genomic regions even when there are no common genes with high homology. We outline the method in 3 stages: (i) We first show how the optimal resolution range can be determined with English books which have been transformed into long character strings by removing all punctuation and spaces. (ii) Next, we test the robustness of the optimized FFP method at the nucleotide level, using a mutation model with a wide range of base substitutions and rearrangements. (iii) Finally, to illustrate the utility of the method, phylogenies are reconstructed from concatenated mammalian intronic genomes; the FFP derived intronic genome topologies for each l within the optimal range are all very similar. The topology agrees with the established mammalian phylogeny revealing that intron regions contain a similar level of phylogenic signal as do coding regions.