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      Temporal variability of forest communities: empirical estimates of population change in 4000 tree species.

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          Abstract

          Long-term surveys of entire communities of species are needed to measure fluctuations in natural populations and elucidate the mechanisms driving population dynamics and community assembly. We analysed changes in abundance of over 4000 tree species in 12 forests across the world over periods of 6-28 years. Abundance fluctuations in all forests are large and consistent with population dynamics models in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role. At some sites we identify clear environmental drivers, such as fire and drought, that could underlie these patterns, but at other sites there is a need for further research to identify drivers. In addition, cross-site comparisons showed that abundance fluctuations were smaller at species-rich sites, consistent with the idea that stable environmental conditions promote higher diversity. Much community ecology theory emphasises demographic variance and niche stabilisation; we encourage the development of theory in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          Ecol. Lett.
          Ecology letters
          1461-0248
          1461-023X
          Jul 2014
          : 17
          : 7
          Affiliations
          [1 ] Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, P.O. Box 0843-03092, Balboa, Ancón, Republic of Panamá; Department of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Science, National University of Singapore, 14 Science Drive 4, Singapore, 117543, Singapore.
          Article
          10.1111/ele.12296
          24805976
          6b58dc93-5412-4686-b32e-8d8d4dcbdc9e
          © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.
          History

          Abundance fluctuations,biodiversity,demographic stochasticity,environmental variance,forest dynamics,neutral theory,niche stabilization

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